McGaughey plays strong hand on road to Kentucky Derby 2024

In a 45-year training career that has brought him an Eclipse Award and a Hall of Fame induction, Shug McGaughey has seen a lot of ups and downs on the Kentucky Derby trail.

He won America’s biggest race 11 years ago with Orb. Now, with a pair of $1 million horses in Change of Command and Conquest Warrior, he appears to have his best chance yet for a second Derby victory not to mention a Kentucky Oaks (G1) contender with Mystifying.

“We’ve got some nice colts and a couple nice fillies,” McGaughey said this week by phone from Gulfstream Park. “If all goes well, I think we could have a nice year.”

The next step comes Saturday at 5:15 p.m. EST when Change of Command carries jockey Tyler Gaffalione and the role of 3-1 morning-line favorite into the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The 1 1/16-mile race will award 20-10-6-4-2 points toward qualifying for the Derby.

Click here for Tampa Bay Downs entries and results.

As a Kentucky native, McGaughey, 73, also has witnessed the recent downside of the Derby, what with the race being marred by two disqualifications of first-place finishers in the last five years and at least 14 horse deaths last spring at Churchill Downs.

“Hopefully, we won’t have a repeat of last spring. I feel sure that we won’t,” McGaughey said in an interview for Horse Racing Nation’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod. “I think it was just one of those things that happened. ... I feel sure with all the safety precautions that are in place, as long as they don’t try to overdo it, we won’t have a repeat of that.”

McGaughey was the beneficiary of sorts of another Derby negative. When Maximum Security was disqualified from his 2019 victory because of Luis Sáez’s aggressive ride, his colt Code of Honor was promoted from third to second place. In the nearly five years since, Maximum Security’s trainer Jason Servis was convicted and given a federal prison sentence for doping horses.

“It was a shame the winner got taken down,” McGaughey said. “It was obvious that Servis was doing everything he could do wrong to help the horse win. I was the victim of that in the (2019) Florida Derby (G1) and I think the Kentucky Derby.”

With the heightened attention on safety and medication limits managed by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, McGaughey said he was optimistic that the Derby could get past its recent dark era.

“I think that we’ll see clean races in the future,” he said.

Turning the page, McGaughey finds himself with high-priced horses who were brought to him by Courtlandt Farms, the Ocala, Fla., operation run by Donald and Donna Adam. They paid $1 million in 2022 for City of Light yearling Conquest Warrior and $1.05 million last year for Into Mischief colt Change of Command.

McGaughey said he was grateful for the help he had in getting such talented, young colts into his barn, giving credit to “my client David Ingordo and (Courtlandt farm manager) Ernie Retamoza along with Mr. Adam being aggressive for what evolved.”

The Kentucky Derby futures market has expressed faith in McGaughey’s colts. Maiden winner Conquest Warrior at 40-1 and Change of Command at 75-1 were among the top 25 choices this week in Las Vegas.

Change of Command could carry even shorter odds after Saturday if he extends his winning streak to three races. Since he was an allowance victor going 1 1/16 miles last month at Gulfstream, the Sam F. Davis will mark his second time going two turns.

With José Ortiz riding for Todd Pletcher on Agate Road, the 7-2 second choice Saturday, Gaffalione got the call to take over on Change of Command. McGaughey also decided to add blinkers for the first time.

“In some of his races, especially the last three, he just sort of hung a little bit on his own,” McGaughey said. “The race (Nov. 4) at Aqueduct, he was in front kind of the whole way, and Sierra Leone came and nailed him on the wire. He just didn’t finish as well as I would like. Also, he won pretty easy here breaking his maiden, and we still didn’t think he finished up as well as he should have. In his allowance race (last month) he looked like he went way off and he hung a little bit the last part of it. He let another horse sort of challenge him. We tried the blinkers (in training). They seemed to work. Obviously, we’ll find out in the Sam Davis.”

With the blinkers and the racing style he established in compiling a 5: 2-1-1 record since his Saratoga debut last summer, Change of Command will be expected to be on or near the early lead again Saturday.

“If he breaks good, he’ll either be close or right on it,” McGaughey said. “He’s got the speed. The blinkers might put a little bit of speed into him, also. My instructions to Tyler will be to just let him break, see what these other guys do and take it from there.”

Long shots El Principito and Everdoit may vie for the early lead in the field of 12. Black-type winners Patriot Spirit and Copper Tax, maiden victor No More Time and 2-for-2 Elysian Meadows are also candidates to be forward into the first turn with Change of Command.

“I don’t think he has to be on the lead by any means,” McGaughey said. “If something happened where we were even lying back in the middle of the pack, I think he’s got enough experience now to where he can kind of be where he wants to be. We’ll take it from there and just see.”

While Change of Command tackles a stakes for the first time Saturday, Conquest Warrior waits for his next assignments, perhaps one more allowance race, McGaughey said, before graduating to graded company.

If the Derby trail is a game of Texas hold-’em, McGaughey is playing a strong hand before the flop, the turn and the river at Churchill Downs.

“I think they’re both nice horses with good minds,” he said. “We’ll just see where they take us.”