Matt Winn odds & analysis: Maiden winner could upset

With the Grade 3, $150,000 Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday bringing in two familiar horses from the Kentucky Derby trail, it might be worth the time to take a shot against them on top with an impressive under-the-radar maiden winner.

With that said, it takes the right odds to play this kind of horse, as the entries with graded stakes experience hold an advantage by just running in those higher races.

The Matt Winn is carded as Race 9 with a post time of 4:45 EDT. Each starter is listed with Horse Racing Nation odds.

1. Ready to Pounce, 10-1 (More Than Ready – Neil Pessin/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 2: 1-0-0 - $50,400). Watch his maiden win at Keeneland on April 21. Ready to Pounce moved through the rail under his own power on the backside and reached the lead by the far turn with only the Chad Brown-trained Realm of Law near him. At that point, jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. needed only to shake the reins a few times without using the stick, and Ready to Pounce easily pulled clear of the nicely bred Realm of Law. He crossed the wire ahead by 4 3/4 lengths while giving the impression that a larger margin was possible. Ready to Pounce posted a low 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort, but he does not face monsters here. As long as Ready to Pounce is not favored, the maiden win is impressive enough to take a shot on him. The pick.

2. Helium, 9-5 (Ironicus – Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux – 4: 3-0-0 - $287,763). After Helium won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) over Hidden Stash on March 6, trainer Mark Casse opted to bypass a final Kentucky Derby prep race and go into the 1 1/4-mile race off workouts alone. Helium started off well enough to secure a good upfront position and flash some early tactical speed. Not surprisingly though, he faded to eighth in the lane, losing by 10 1/2 lengths. Considering the size of the Kentucky Derby field, finishing eighth is not terrible, as it means he still defeated 11 horses. Despite the fade, he still earned a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort. On the negative side, the public is almost certain to overbet Helium in this spot off the Derby running line alone and his speed figure advantage is not insurmountable. Helium is an obvious contender on the cutback in class and distance, but watch the odds. Win contender.

3. O Besos, 5-2 (Orb – Gregory Foley/Marcelino Pedroza – 6: 2-0-1 - $262,624). Pedroza possibly cost this hard-trying closer a few lengths in the Kentucky Derby stretch run by attempting to rally through the rail. Throughout the Oaks and Derby cards, jockeys had been moving their mounts towards the outside paths in the stretch. Regardless, O Besos still performed well enough to hold fifth place at 41-1 odds. He finished 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Midnight Bourbon in sixth, the eventual Preakness Stakes runner-up two weeks later. Before the Derby, O Besos was third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and fourth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Because of his lack of speed, though, he is ranked behind Ready to Pounce and Helium. In most cases, dirt closers are better off in the bottom slots unless a fast pace is brewing. Use underneath.

4. Southern Passage, 12-1 (Super Saver – Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie – 11: 1-2-2 - $59,942). Three starts ago, Southern Passage finished a non-threatening sixth in the Florida Derby (G1), 15 lengths behind the winner Known Agenda. After that effort, he crossed the wire sixth in a local optional claiming race on the Derby undercard and third in a weak allowance race on May 15 against older horses. With that said, this closer is liable to complete the superfecta against this weak Grade 3 field, especially in an average-sized group such as this one where traffic becomes less of an issue. This closer is not good enough to win, but throw him into the third and fourth slots. Use underneath.

5. Fulsome, 9-2 (Into Mischief – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 6: 3-1-0 - $282,714). First of all, the combination of trainer Brad Cox and Florent Geroux will grab attention immediately. As for the horse’s actual form, Fulsome is not impressive yet. Even though Fulsome won the Oaklawn Stakes, he had to struggle to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths over Warrant and Game Day Play. Previously, Warrant lost an April 3 optional claiming race at Keeneland by a nose to Joe Frazier, who was ninth in the Pat Day Mile (G2) in his next start. Game Day Play has done nothing notable in his career. Also, Fulsome’s 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Oaklawn Stakes win is lower Ready to Pounce’s 104 for his maiden breaker. In fairness, Fulsome also earned a 107 on TimeformUS for his allowance win at Keeneland two starts ago as well. Then, why did he regress in the Oaklawn Stakes and struggle to put away Warrant and Game Day Play? Based on the Oaklawn effort, he is a play-against on top, unless his odds unexpectedly drift up. Maybe he could be used in the bottom slots. Use underneath.

6. Hello Hot Rod, 20-1 (Mosler – Shawn Davis/Francisco Arrieta – 5: 3-1-0 - $121,441). Considering his fourth-place finish against in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, it is hard to imagine Hello Hot Rod contending in this field. At least Hello Hot Rod’s overall win-loss record is admirable, with his only trifecta miss coming in the Federico Tesio. He won the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct and also owns two wins at Laurel Park, including an optional claimer and maiden claiming race. None of those facts are enticing enough to trust Hello Hot Rod in this spot. Toss.

7. Sittin On Go, 8-1 (Brody’s Cause – Dale Romans/Joseph Talamo – 8: 2-0-0 - $187,620). Does this closer want to route? His two wins came in a five-furlong maiden race and the Iroquois Stakes (G3), a one-turn mile. After that point, Sittin On Go struggled tremendously on the Derby trail, with his best finish a sixth by five lengths in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last November. In every other start on the trail, he lost by double-digit lengths. When Sittin On Go finally cut back in the Pat Day Mile (G2), he gave an improved effort by rallying from 11th to close into fifth by 4 3/4 lengths. No one questions the quality of the Pat Day with Jackie’s Warrior and Dream Shake taking up the first two positions. Now, Sittin On Go stretches back out to a two-turn route. Given those facts, trusting Sittin On Go on top at this distance is difficult. Throw him into the bottom slots in case he picks off some horses. Use underneath.

8. Game Day Play, 20-1 (Violence – Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen – 9: 2-1-3 - $129,372). His form is just not good enough to contend for the win. In the Oaklawn Stakes, this gelding had every chance to beat Fulsome and Warrant in the lane, and he failed. Before that third-place effort came three sprint races, with his closest finish a second by a neck over slop at Fair Grounds on Feb. 21 in a weak optional claimer. He also finished third in the Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn and ran third again in an Oaklawn optional claiming race on April 10. Before those sprint races, Game Day Play finished sixth by 17 lengths in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). Like Sittin On Go, it seems like this horse wants to sprint even though he just finished third in the Oaklawn Stakes. As for his usability in the bottom slots, a line has to be drawn somewhere to save money, even in the third and fourth positions. He is a throwout. Toss.

Conclusion

With most of the public expected to bet Helium and O Besos, Ready to Pounce most likely will offer enough value to take a shot on him. If nothing else, the low-profile trainer Neil Pessin will make sure Ready to Pounce’s odds stay attractive enough.

At 6-1 or higher, Ready to Pounce is a worthwhile win and place bet.

In terms of multi-race wagers, Ready to Pounce and Helium are the ones to use.