Matt Winn fair odds: Trust Derby finish in battle of also-rans

With three of the seven entrants of the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes on Sunday at Churchill Downs expected to be scratched, a field of four remains for this 1 1/16-mile contest that features nothing but Kentucky Derby also-rans.

Final Gambit, Burnham Square, East Avenue and Coal Battle finished fourth, sixth, eighth and eleventh, respectively, on May 3. I am going to trust that Final Gambit running best that day means he is the best of these.

The wagering figures to be pretty flat, with plenty to recommend each of the four entrants. Burnham Square probably had the roughest Derby trip and could improve off that. East Avenue benefits from a compact field and has a speed edge. I thought Coal Battle was going the wrong way out of the Arkansas Derby (G1), but he might be back on track here.

All that said, Final Gambit made a believer out of me. He ran a good figure in the Derby to string a pair of solid races together after winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on synthetic. I am encouraged that trainer Brad Cox stays the course on dirt, and I think we'll get our price. A four-horse field makes it hard to be creative with wagering, so we won't. Bet Final Gambit to win.