Matt Winn Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

With Churchill Downs’ Spring Meet in full swing, the Kentucky Derby trail continues Saturday with the Grade 3, $150,000 Matt Winn Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. The race attracted a full field of 12 horses led by the 2-year-old star in Maxfield.

Maxfield is coming off a layoff, though, in his 3-year-old debut, with this a 50-20-10-5 Derby points prep. It is fair to question the value and whether this colt has progressed. He could develop into a top horse, but right now, what evidence do we have?

The Matt Winn is carded as Race 10 with a post time of 5:44 p.m. ET. Prospective morning line odds are via Horse Racing Nation.

1. Mystic Guide, 20-1 (Ghostzapper – Michael Stidham/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 2: 1-0-1): This colt, as with Maxfield, is owned by Godolphin. The colt’s loaded with route pedigree as a son of Ghostzapper and Music Note, one of the top fillies in the Zenyatta era. With his long-winded blood in mind, it is no surprise he improved on the stretch out and broke his maiden by five lengths at Fair Grounds on March 21. But he topped a questionable field, including the runner-up Amani’s Eagle who ran a disappointing fourth as the favorite in his next start. Mystic Guide could develop into a top 3-year-old horse. For now, limit this inexperienced runner to the bottom slots, if at all. Use underneath.

2. Pneumatic, 6-1 (Uncle Mo – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 2: 2-0-0): This son of Uncle Mo only owns a maiden and allowance optional claiming win, both at Oaklawn. However, Pneumatic notably defeated Captain Bombastic in that optional claimer, a stakes-experienced New York-bred runner with some quality. In Pneumatic’s career debut, he also beat a horse named Skol Factor, who went on to break his maiden on April 11 by 6 ½ lengths. Pneumatic owns enough speed for Santana to position him around mid-pack. If room opens up on the far turn, expect Pneumatic to move forward in his third start with another strong rally. The pick.

3. Informative, 30-1 (Bodemeister – Uriah St. Lewis/John Bisono – 9: 1-2-0): Given Informative could only manage a seventh-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (G3) against a moderate group, the Derby trail is not the right path for him. He also only broke his maiden by a neck at Aqueduct against a weak field. If this horse wins, it will go down as a major upset. Toss.

4. Celtic Striker, 50-1 (Congrats – Raymond Handal/Manuel Franco – 5: 2-1-0): As with Informative, it is hard to imagine why the connections think this horse could factor. After flashing early speed, Celtic Striker folded to 11th and last in the Gotham. At least he will provide some pace for the stalkers and closers. Toss.

5. Flap Jack, 50-1 (Oxbow – Jack Sisterson/Rafael Bejarano – 5: 1-1-0): Some of these connections are reaching for the stars, or chasing Derby points anyway. After showing early speed, this horse faded to 12th in the Oaklawn Stakes, 33 ¼ lengths behind Matt Winn rival Mr Big News. His sixth-place finish in the Gotham is not a huge positive either. He needs a huge turnaround. Toss.

6. Ny Traffic, 9/2 (Cross Traffic – Saffie Joseph Jr./Paco Lopez – 7: 2-1-2): There has been some talk of Joseph Jr. not winning as much lately. Regardless, Ny Traffic ran well in his runner-up Louisiana Derby (G2) effort. The winner, Wells Bayou, ran alone up front through a moderate pace, making him hard to mow down in the stretch run. In the end, Ny Traffic still held second over Modernist and Major Fed. With that said, is he a money burner? He could only manage a third in the second division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2) as well. Even with some minor concerns, in a race that lacks a Wells Bayou-type, his early speed is an asset. Win contender.

7. Necker Island, 30-1 (Hard Spun – Stanley Hough/Tyler Gaffalione – 6: 2-0-1): In this colt’s last three starts, he has been exposed as average. After a fifth-place finish in the Swale Stakes (G3), he went on to finish fifth in the Gotham Stakes (G3) and fourth in the Unbridled Stakes with no punch in the stretch. He needs to turn his form around before bettors can trust him. Toss.

8. Crypto Cash, 30-1 (Majesticperfection – Kenneth McPeek/Corey Lanerie – 6: 2-1-0): For what it is worth, this longshot did some minor running late to close for sixth in the first division of the Arkansas Derby (G1). He finished 10 ¼ lengths ahead of Mo Mosa in seventh place and 10 ¾ lengths behind the winner Charlatan. In this spot, he gets to cut back in distance and could pick off some horses again late for a minor placing. Just in case the pace is faster than expected and he does fire late, throw him into the third or fourth slots. Use underneath.

9. Shake Some Action, 20-1 (Into Mischief – Brad Cox/Javier Castellano – 4: 2-0-0): His effort in the Louisiana Derby wasn’t terrible. Shake Some Action steadied early and still passed some notable horses late, including Silver State and Chestertown, to pick up sixth. Regardless, his lack of speed is a concern in this large field. He also does not look fast enough on speed figures to win. As with Crypto Cas, Shake Some Action could pick off enough horses late to earn a minor placing in third or fourth. Use underneath.

10. Maxfield, 7/5 (Street Sense – Brendan Walsh/Jose Ortiz – 2: 2-0-0): With the failure of most 2-year-old stars to move forward in their 3-year-old seasons, it is difficult not to exhibit some caution with Maxfield. Here is a popular colt coming off a long layoff in a Derby prep race. Sure, Maxfield was a star last October when closing for a 5 ½-length win in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. The two key words, however, are “last October.” How does anyone know whether he will return in that same fashion? From a betting standpoint, what upside is there to relying on him? For what it is worth, Maxfield did fire a nice bullet work on May 10. Only use this favorite defensively in multi-race wagers and watch how he performs for future consideration. Win contender.

11. Attachment Rate, 15-1 (Hard Spun – Dale Romans/John Velazquez – 5: 1-2-1): Betting on horses that cannot switch leads is always a liability. This closer failed to switch in the Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park and it cost him as Dr Post found more in the stretch and widened his advantage. Attachment Rate did lose to a nice horse with a future and still held second. But unless he corrects this mechanical flaw, failing to switch leads will probably cause him to hang again. If he fires, expect a wide, menacing move before he stalls once more in the lane for a minor share. Use underneath.

12. Major Fed, 5-1 (Ghostzapper – Gregory Foley/Joel Rosario – 4: 1-1-1): Major Fed closed from last of 14 in the Louisiana Derby to fourth, only 4 ¾ lengths behind Wells Bayou. In other words, he made up significant ground in that race. But choosing a late closer in a large field is always a liability because of traffic. If Major Fed reverts back to his style in the second division of the Risen Star, where he ran as a stalker, he could win. The mystery of his style and outside post make him hard to bet on top. Use underneath.

Conclusion:  Pneumatic lacks stakes experience. But as pointed out, he defeated a decent horse with stakes experience in his allowance win. He also sports trustworthy connections in Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds.

With Maxfield coming off a layoff, it makes sense to play against the favorite. He could win, but there is no upside to betting a popular horse like him without firm evidence that he has progressed from his 2-year-old form.

Pneumatic works as either a win or place bet because of the likelihood of him going off as third choice or higher. If he is lower, then reconsider.

In terms of multi-race wagers, Pneumatic is usable alongside Maxfield and Ny Traffic.