The math behind 2019 Kentucky Derby's large expected payouts
One of the things that makes the Kentucky Derby so great is the opportunity for huge payoffs, which we will certainly have for this year's running.
Simply, mathematically, the Derby returns have to be big.
So many combinations
Kentucky Derby exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers are difficult to hit due to the sheer number of possible outcomes in a 20-horse field, with the Kentucky Derby the largest horse race annually in the U.S.
See how the possible combinations jump considerably with every additional horse in a field:
Higher-priced favorite means larger payoffs this year
This year, it is almost guaranteed that the exacta and trifecta will pay greater than last year. Why? Because this year we will be starting with a much higher-priced favorite.
Last year, Justify went to post at odds of 2.90-1, and runner-up Good Magic was 9.70-1, leading to $2 exacta payout of $69.60. It will be nearly impossible to get that low of a payoff in 2019.
There is no standout favorite in this year's field. Consider the early Kentucky Derby 2019 morning line morning line released by Horse Racing Nation. The lowest-priced horse, Omaha Beach, is 9-2, and there's no guarantee the wagering public will agree, adding to the parity.
| HRN Early Kentucky Derby Odds | |
| Horse | Morning Line |
| Omaha Beach | 9-2 |
| Roadster | 5-1 |
| Tacitus | 6-1 |
| Game Winner | 8-1 |
| Improbable | 10-1 |
| Maximum Security | 10-1 |
| Code of Honor | 15-1 |
| Vekoma | 15-1 |
| By My Standards | 20-1 |
| War of Will | 20-1 |
| Country House | 30-1 |
| Cutting Humor | 30-1 |
| Haikal | 30-1 |
| Long Range Toddy | 30-1 |
| Tax | 30-1 |
| Spinoff | 30-1 |
| Win Win Win | 30-1 |
| Gray Magician | 50-1 |
| Master Fencer | 50-1 |
| Plus Que Parfait | 50-1 |
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High-priced favorites' success rate
While the post time Kentucky Derby favorite has won an impressive six straight times, here are some interesting facts about higher-priced Derby favorites:
Since 1980, favorites at 3-1 or higher have won only four of 16 races (25%)
In addition, the second betting choice has won only three of the last 29 runnings, for a weak 10.3%.
Finally, here is a look at how high-priced favorites of 5-1 or higher performed in the Derby since 1980.
High-priced favorites lead to chaos, big payouts
If we look at the history of those high-priced favorite Kentucky Derby races, look how they all produced boxcar payoffs.
Even in the three cases where the favorite (Orb, 2013) or second choice (Super Saver in 2010/Barbaro in 2006) won, the payoffs were still huge. In 2013, even with the favorite winning and the second choice Revolutionary running third, the payoffs were massive due to Golden Soul running second at 34-1.
If we dig in a little further, we can see the different runners that rounded out the trifecta and superfecta these years.
Even when there is no 20-1 or 30-1 longshot present -- like in 2010 when the 1-2-3 finishers were 8-1, 11-1 and 12-1 -- the trifecta payoff was a juicy $2,337.
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Super Screener longshot success
In 2017, the Super Screener added to its greatest Kentucky Derby scores by listing 33-1 Lookin At Lee as its top longshot. Super Screener also had 37-1 Commanding Curve as a top longshot in 2014 and 34-1 Golden Soul in 2013.
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