Maple Leaf fair odds: Classic test points to logical answers

Normally the only horse you recognize in a 13-horse field is expected to take money, but the 5-1 morning line on Caitlinhergrtness in the Maple Leaf Stakes on Saturday at Woodbine would be a fair price.

There are two horses lower than this year's King's Plate winner, her uncoupled stablemate and 3-1 morning line favorite Fashionably Fab and trainer Brendan Walsh's Kentucky shipper Queen Regent.

Fresh off winning the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf with 2022 Queen's Plate winner Moira, trainer Kevin Attard has two of the most likely winners in this race in Caitlinhergrtness and Fashionably Fab. The former already has a win at this track and distance by virtue of the King's Plate score, and the latter is 7-for-12 on the Woodbine Tapeta but never has gone this far.

At their morning-line prices, I prefer Fashionably Fab as I think the race sets up for her better. But if she gets bet and Caitlinhergrtness does not, then I will be ready to pivot to the classic winner.

Queen Regent is a definite toss for me. It looks like she will get overbet  given connections and return to synthetic, but her two tries in America started bad and got worse. I cannot play her anywhere near that morning-line price to rebound in the way it would take for her to be competitive here.

The Maple Leaf is race 7 and part of a troika of graded events on the 10-race card, which includes an all-graded stakes Pick 3 with races 7-9. I'd feel comfortable just leaning on the Attard pair here.