Mamzelle fair odds: Turf is a question for speedy Nice As Pie

When it comes to handicapping the Mamzelle Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs, the question is not whether Nice As Pie is fast, it's whether she will take to the turf.

After a lackluster career debut on dirt, Nice As Pie has won four consecutive races on the synthetic Tapeta surface, including a pair of stakes, at Turfway Park this winter and spring. Now she switches to turf, and as clearly the fastest horse among an overflow field of three-year-old fillies, the question is what price are you willing to take that she handles turf?

The signals are a little mixed on the pedigree side of things, as sire Tapiture is just 8.9 percent with his progeny on turf, and they are typically overbet as seen by the -29.2 percent HRN Impact score.

Things are more positive on the dam side of the pedigree. Nice As Pie's half brother out of the Include mare How Nice, Smokin J, is a two-time turf sprint winner against allowance company.

I'm not comfortable taking a super short price on her, though, and given fair odds of 7-2, her morning line of 9-5 is definitely too short.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure my primary alternative, Imaboutago, will offer any better value. 4-1 on my fair odds line, this undefeated Wesley Ward trainee is drawn well to the outside to user her speed. If the public goes nuts on Nice Is Pie then Imaboutago could be the play, but I'm concerned both will take too much money.

If that happens in a 14-horse field then I have to think either Cloudwalker or Niki Nine Doors would have drift beyond my fair odds. If my top two choices take too much money then I'd want to look at the exacta pools using Cloudwalker and Niki Nine Doors to beat at least one of my choices.