Malibu odds & analysis: Hyped Flightline is not the best choice

For horse players, the Grade 1, $300,000 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita is a great betting race on paper. The Sunday race for 3-year-olds at seven furlongs brings together a possible monster with two blowout wins, a sprinter with a class edge, a sibling to a Triple Crown champion and other interesting runners.

One thing we will learn is whether the lightly raced is Flightline ready to take the next step after two starts and two wins at the maiden and optional claiming levels.

The Malibu Stakes is carded as Race 10 with a post time of 6:30 p.m. EST. Here is a look at the field, with odds provided by Horse Racing Nation staff.

1. Baby Yoda, 10-1 (Prospective – William Mott/Jose Ortiz – 6: 3-0-2 - $139,230): After the huge Saratoga allowance win with a 114 Beyer Speed Figure three starts ago, Baby Yoda disappointed the betting public with a third in the Vosburgh Stakes (G2) and seventh in the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes at Mahoning Valley. In fairness, Baby Yoda closed from last and encountered traffic problems in the stretch. His cute name means casual bettors will love him. Nevertheless, he is usable in the minor spots for trifecta or superfecta action. With a clear trip, he might turn in an effort somewhat closer to the Saratoga win, even if he does not quite match the figure. Use underneath.

2. Timeless Bounty, 20-1 (Elusive Hour – Robert Hess Jr./Umberto Rispoli – 14: 5-2-3 - $210,714): The son of Elusive Hour won the aforementioned Steel Valley Sprint, but the Malibu is on another level. Prior to the Steel Valley Sprint, Timeless Bounty started in three straight optional claiming races at Thistledown and Mahoning Valley. In August, he won an open $12.5k claiming race at Thistledown. While popularity at the claim box is a good sign and it was great to see him win a $250k stakes race last month, the task here looks too difficult. Toss.

3. Stilleto Boy, 8-1 (Shackleford – Ed Moger Jr./Kent Desormeaux – 11: 2-3-3 - $504,675): This gelding wants to run up front, yet the connections are intent on changing him into a stalker or mid-pack type of horse. In fairness, stalking tactics resulted in a runner-up finish in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) two starts ago. He also ran fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which is nothing to sneeze at. But another problem is that he lacks any sprint wins. His maiden breaker came in a two-turn route at Oaklawn Park. At seven furlongs, maybe he will take up a mid-pack position and close for a minor piece if the race heats up enough. Use underneath.

4. Dr. Schivel, 3-1 (Violence – Mark Glatt/Juan Hernandez – 8: 5-2-1 - $876,000): This colt lost the Breeders’ Cup Sprint by a nose to Aloha West. Prior to that effort, he won three straight sprint races, including the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) and Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2). The stretchout to seven furlongs is not a problem, as he won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last year at the same distance. His tactical speed will come in handy as well. Running without Lasix is not a problem either. In contrast, the lack of Lasix might pose a problem for the unproven Flightline. With Flightline attracting all the attention, the public might lay off Dr. Schivel a bit and leave him a slight overlay in the win pool. But he holds the class edge in this race. The pick.

5. Flightline, 4-5 (Tapit – John Sadler/Flavien Prat – 2: 2-0-0 - $79,800): This is obviously an impressive, albeit fragile, runner. He broke his maiden by 13 lengths on this course in April before taking time off and returning with a 12-length optional claiming win at Del Mar in September. Flightline gives the impression of a possible superstar in the making if he could hold together for at least part of the next season and make the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The question is whether going off Lasix affects this potential monster. Use him in multi-race wagers just in case, but he probably will be overbet because of the hype surrounding his two wins. Win contender.

6. Team Merchants, 30-1 (Nyquist – Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez – 8: 3-0-0 - $177,490): After making a menacing move in the Shared Belief Stakes, Team Merchants failed to sustain the run and faded to fifth. He then stretched out to nine furlongs in the Oklahoma Derby (G3) and lost ground in the stretch on his way to a distant fourth. His win in the one-mile Let It Ride Stakes on Del Mar turf is decent, but then he faded to 13th in the Hollywood Derby (G1). Team Merchants had shown promise last year when breaking his maiden at Saratoga over Ten for Ten and Speaker’s Corner, but right now, he does not look like a Grade 1 runner. Toss.

7. Triple Tap, 8-1 (Tapit – Bob Baffert/John Velazquez – 2: 2-0-0 - $96,600): The pedigree is certain to grab attention. This is a Tapit half-brother to 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah. In two starts, he broke his maiden by 4 1/4 lengths in March over this course and won an optional claiming race at Del Mar in November. His path at this point resembles Flightline, who took a similar break. In that Nov. 5 optional claiming race, he took advantage of a 43.73-second half to help him close. He might need more seasoning to win at this level though. On the positive side for bettors, trainer Bob Baffert is behind him and he rarely wastes a start at the graded-stakes level if the horse is not ready. Use underneath.

Conclusion: With the Flightline hype surrounding this race, Dr. Schivel should offer enough value to make a win and place bet at 3-1 or higher. The underneath options were identified to help exacta, trifecta and superfecta players. In multi-race wagers, use both Dr. Schivel and Flightline.

Bet

Win/place: 4