Santa Anita: Malibu Stakes 2024 odds and analysis
The comeback of Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan highlights the Grade 1, $300,000 Malibu Stakes on opening day Thursday at Santa Anita, which is hosting the final top-level races of 2024.
Restricted to 3-year-olds, the Malibu will be run at seven furlongs. The field of eight includes five graded-stakes winners, another who had a top-three finish in a graded stakes but has only an allowance win, a stakes winner and one who has just a maiden victory. Among those eight, there are two Grade 1 winners and four who already have won more than $1 million in their careers.
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Here is a full-field analysis with morning-line odds, sires – trainers, jockeys, records and purse totals. The Malibu is set as the eighth of 11 races Thursday with a scheduled post time of 5:36 p.m. EST.
1. Bentornato, 7-2. Valiant Minister – Jose D’Angelo, Luis Saez, 9: 5-2-2, $1,131,830. Bentornato needed time off following a third-place finish in the rich Saudi Derby (G3). He since used his early speed to win the Gallant Bob (G2) at Parx and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The Florida-bred began his career with four wins in a row as a 2-year-old at Gulfstream Park. He is projected to get to the lead and will need to hustle out of the gate from the rail to do so. Win contender.
2. Pilot Commander, 6-1. Justify – Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 4: 2-2-0, $124,800. Pilot Commander is one of the three horses who Bob Baffert has in the Malibu. This son of Justify was a debut winner at Del Mar as the favorite in a six-horse field then went on to run second in the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita. He had eight months off at that point, coming back to run second in one allowance at Del Mar and then got a victory at Santa Anita in October in another. He will find lots of pressure on the front-end in this field. Toss.
3. Winterfell, 8-1. Arrogate – Bob Baffert, John Velazquez, 8: 3-1-1, $147,040. Winterfell made five starts to begin his career racing for Baffert in March. He was sent to the barn of Brittany Russell and immediately got his maiden victory at Parx by eight lengths. Winterfell continued to win for Russell in an allowance win and a stakes at Laurel Park, where he cut back to seven furlongs. He is back in the Baffert barn for this trip to California. Winterfell should get the right set-up for his late running style. Live long shot.
4. Senior Officer, 6-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 2: 1-1-0, $58,200. Senior Officer is a lightly raced son of Into Mischief who won at first asking at Churchill Downs as the even-money favorite against a field of 12 while racing from the back of the field in September. The following month he had to check in an allowance and was second against another big field. Use underneath.
5. Imagination, 12-1. Into Mischief, Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 10: 2-5-1, $435,700. Imagination was a $1.05 million yearling purchase for SF Racing and its partners. He won the San Felipe (G2) on the Kentucky Derby trail in his fifth start and went on to run in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), where he missed the win by a neck as the even-money favorite. After finishing seventh in both the Preakness and the Woody Stephens (G1), he got some time off. Back in California he was third in the Shared Belief at Del Mar and second in a Santa Anita allowance. Imagination is among the group that prefers to be forwardly placed. Toss.
6. Mystik Dan, 5-2. Goldencents, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 9: 3-2-1, $4,161,360. Mystik Dan returns from a June layoff. He was last seen finishing eighth in the Belmont Stakes. The Kentucky Derby winner also was second in the Preakness. He qualified for the run for the roses with a victory in the Southwest (G3) and a third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn. Mystik Dan has been training for his return with six works at Fair Grounds since the beginning of November. He was vanned from the New Orleans track to Santa Anita for the Malibu. Win contender.
7. Stronghold, 5-1. Ghostzapper, Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 9: 3-5-0, $1,068,000. Stronghold has faced quality fields throughout his career with only graded-stakes showing following his maiden victory in his second start at Churchill. He won a pair of Derby points races in the Sunland Derby (G3) and the Santa Anita Derby to earn a spot in the run for the roses. He was a competitive seventh on that first Saturday in May. Stronghold came back to run second with stalking trips in the Indiana Derby (G3) and in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Use underneath.
8. Raging Torrent, 8-1. Maximus Mischief, Doug O’Neill, Frankie Dettori, 11: 4-1-2, $487,400. Raging Torrent is a seven-furlong specialist with three of his four victories at that distance. The debut winner appeared on the Kentucky Derby trail and made two starts on the turf before winning three races in a row with front-end efforts starting in May. After winning the Pat O’Brien (G2) at Del Mar in August, Raging Torrent was seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Top choice.
Summary. It looks like pace will make the race in the Malibu with quality horses who like to race on the front end facing off against late runners who will benefit from the seven-furlong distance.
Closers generally have an advantage in seven-furlong races. Of the three Baffert horses, Winterfell is preferred with his off-the-pace running style. Senior Officer finds a tough spot for his stakes debut. Mystik Dan is likely to need a race, especially in this quality Grade 1. Stronghold has only one result out of the top three, and that was in the Kentucky Derby. Raging Torrent is a Malibu distance specialist.
Raging Torrent is the top choice to use in an exacta key box with Stronghold, Winterfell and Bentornato.