Malibu 2022: Odds & analysis for Grade 1 race at Santa Anita

The feature on the opening day card at Santa Anita on Monday is the seven-furlong, $300,000 Malibu Stakes, which is the final Grade 1 of the year restricted to 3-year-olds. The race drew a field of nine led by Bob Baffert’s Taiba.

With a pair of Grade 1 victories in only six starts, Taiba is the leading money winner and most accomplished member of this field, which includes three graded-stakes winners, two others with listed stakes victories and four horses looking for their first win beyond allowance races.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Malibu Stakes with morning line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Malibu is scheduled as race 10 of 11 on a card with five graded stakes. Post time is set for 6:30 p.m. EST.

1. Forbidden Kingdom (9-2 – American Pharoah – Richard Mandella / Juan Hernandez – 8: 3-1-2 - $447,500) Forbidden Kingdom was a debut winner as a 2-year-old at Del Mar and then moved in stakes competition for Richard Mandella. The son of American Pharaoh used front-running tactics to win consecutive Grade 2 races in the San Vicente and the San Felipe. Forbidden Kingdom since has come up short down the stretch. He got a break after a sixth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and returned in October, trying a pair of sprints in a Grade 2 and a November allowance to no avail. He will need to find his best form to contend in this tough field. Toss.

2. Messier (8-1 – Empire Maker – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 8: 3-3-0 - $438,037) Messier finished first or second in his first six starts beginning with four starts as a 2-year-old, when he won the Bob Hope (G3) and placed in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Following a brief layoff he blitzed the field in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) by 15 lengths on the Kentucky Derby trail. Messier then was second behind Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby and 15th in the Run for the Roses. After a six-month freshening, Messier started out well in an allowance at Keeneland but stopped badly. The comment line from the Equibase chart for the race says that “he bled and walked off.” A start in the Malibu would be a quick turnaround for a horse who had seriously bled. It is hard to know what to expect from Messier under the circumstances. Win contender.

3. Apprehend (15-1 – Arrogate – Peter Miller / Ramon Vasquez – 8: 3-3-0 - $202,500) Apprehend won both of his starts at Santa Anita with a pair of allowance scores, one in June sprinting and in October going a mile by more than eight lengths. The son of Arrogate made his stakes debut in the Zia Park Derby last month and finished second after setting the pace as the odds-on favorite. Toss.

4. Nakatomi (5-1 – Firing Line – Wesley Ward / Tyler Gaffalione – 8: 4-1-1 - $380,213) Nakatomi won 3 of his last 4 starts going back to the end of his juvenile year, when he was the winner of a stakes race at Keeneland. He has two allowance wins in sprint races this year and will have to ship across the country. Seven furlongs will be the longest race of his career. Nakatomi was one the horses trainer Wesley Ward sent to Royal Ascot right after his debut maiden victory as a 2-year-old. Toss.

5. Hoist the Gold (8-1 – Mineshaft – Dallas Stewart / Joel Rosario – 15: 2-4-2 - $271,252) Hoist the Gold is a sprinter who last found the winner’s circle in a February allowance race at Fair Grounds. He since had several top-three finishes in listed stakes and allowances at five tracks. Hoist the Gold was last seen rallying from far behind to get fourth in a stakes race at Mahoning Valley. Toss.

6. Taiba (6-5 – Gun Runner – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 6: 3-1-1 - $1,776,200) Taiba is the only Grade 1 winner in this field, with victories in the Santa Anita Derby and the Pennsylvania Derby. Since breaking his maiden at Santa Anita in March of this year, Taiba raced exclusively in Grade 1 stakes at five tracks across the country. He will return to race at Santa Anita for the first time since April. Taiba was last seen finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind two outstanding older horses in Flightline and Olympiad. He will cut back to a sprinting distance for the first time since his debut. The one to beat.

7. Perfect Flight (15-1 – Uncle Mo – Peter Miller / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 9: 3-2-1 - $297,670) Perfect Flight is the second runner for Peter Miller in the field. Since breaking his maiden for a $75,000 claiming tag, he ran well on both turf and dirt with a second in the La Jolla (G3) at Del Mar in August and a recent victory in the Zia Park Derby on the main track. Ricardo Santana Jr. stays on board after the late rally to win the big race in New Mexico by almost three lengths. He has not sprinted since the first start of his career. Live long shot.

8. Strava (10-1 – Into Mischief – Dallas Stewart / Flavien Prat – 9: 3-1-3 - $276,340) Strava has a pair of allowance victories to his credit, including an easy win in a big field on a sloppy track at Churchill a month ago. Against stakes-level company, third place is the best finish for him. Strava will have to ship to California for the first time to run in his first graded stakes. Toss.

9. Straight No Chaser (12-1 – Speightster – Dan Blacker / Edwin Maldonado – 3: 2-0-0 - $86,300) Straight No Chaser began his career racing on the turf at Del Mar this summer when he won a five-furlong sprint at first asking and then was last in an allowance. He made the switch to the main track at Santa Anita at the end of October and beat a small field with a front-running effort while continuing to sprint. Owned by a MyRacehorse micro-share partnership, Straight No Chaser was the favorite in all three starts. Toss.

Summary: The 3-year-olds get one last Grade 1 opportunity to sprint in the seven-furlong Malibu, and that presents an interesting handicapping twist.

Taiba is clearly the horse to beat in the Malibu Stakes. If Baffert has him ready to fire a top effort like we saw in his last two starts in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Pennsylvania Derby, then he is expected to win his third Grade 1 of the year. But the last time Taiba sprinted was in his maiden victory in March.

A fast pace is expected in the Malibu, which would set the table for horses who prefer to run from behind. Perfect Flight is a live long shot in this field who is in fine form for trainer Peter Miller. Noteworthy is that Ricardo Santana stays on board and that Perfect Flight is his only mount of the day.