Malibu Stakes 2017: Odds and analysis for Tuesday's race
By Christine Oser
Santa Anita Park kicks off its meet Tuesday -- the traditional day-after-Christmas opener -- with four graded stakes races highlighted by the $300,000 2017 Malibu Stakes. The seven-furlong sprint for 3-year-olds features a local group stepping up to Grade 1 company with East coast shippers joining in the mix.
The Malibu was carded as Race 8 of 9 with a 6:30 p.m. ET post time. Here's the field with morning line odds.
1.) City of Light (8-1 – Quality Road – Michael McCarthy – 4-1-3-0 – $70,600): City of Light broke his maiden by 7 1/2 lengths toward the end of summer and went on to finish second in two allowance optional claiming races, the most recent in which he was passed by Dabster. He rattled off two bullet workouts for five furlongs at Santa Anita on Dec. 12 and 19, going :59 flat both times. Has to hold on in the stretch to win here.
2.) Edwards Going Left (8-1 – Midnight Lute – John Sadler – 9-6-0-1 – $231,390): This former claimer has more experience than most of this group, but it’s going to take a huge effort for him to get the Grade 1 score. He’s had a few allowance optional claiming wins in California and last out won the Cary Grant Stakes, a seven-furlong race for California-breds. His one attempt in open stakes company came in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, where he finished last of sixth after never getting too involved with the race. Open stakes win not likely here.
3.) Irish Freedom (5-1 – Pioneerof the Nile – Bob Baffert – 6-2-1-1 – $105,225): His Kentucky Derby chances were dashed after finishing eighth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, but Irish Freedom came back in August to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race by 5 1/4 lengths. Since then he finished third in the one-mile Comma to the Top Stakes and second at 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes. He hasn’t sprinted since winning his debut, but with several horses looking to step up here, this isn’t the worst place to go for a top-level score. Needs to show he can catch them.
4.) Favorable Outcome (3-1 – Flatter – Chad Brown – 6-3-0-2 – $271,960): This year’s Swale Stakes winner seems to be on the comeback trail. After over seven months in between races, Favorable Outcome ran a respectable third behind Beasley and Harlan Punch in allowance optional claiming race, beaten only 3/4 of a length. He rallied to a neck victory next out in another allowance optional claiming race, this time beating Harlan Punch. He’s put in easy works at Belmont Park, with his most recent move four furlongs Dec. 17 in :49.23. Stands as a threat.
5.) The Street Fighter (30-1 – Street Boss – Bruce Headley – 5-1-1-2 – $58,900): The Street Fighter was a 5 1/2-length debut winner against California-breds but hasn’t been able to replicate that win since. All five starts have come in resitricted company. If he can’t get the job done against California-breds in allowance company, he’s highly unlikely to get the job done here. Doubtful a jump up in competition helps.
6.) Pavel (4-1 – Creative Cause – Doug O’Neill – 5-2-0-1 – $317,400): Pavel has been playing in the deep end throughout his five starts. After winning his debut in July, he took on the Grade 2 Jim Dandy before flashing a six-length win in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He then took on older horses and finished third in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup before running a distant 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The colt has potential, but is ending the year after some hard races. He has not sprinted since his maiden race and cutting back distance at the top level doesn’t look like a clear solution. Needs an easier spot for now.
7.) Heartwood (15-1 – Tapit – James Chapman – 11-3-1-0 – $187,615): Although this son of Tapit went for a nice $500,000 as a weanling, he only brought $75,000 as a 3 year old. He seems to have found his best stride recently in Ohio, winning an allowance optional claiming race and the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes. In his only other stakes experience, Heartwood finished last of 10 in the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby. Resume not good enough for this group.
8.) Dabster (6-1 – Curlin – Bob Baffert – 3-2-0-0 – $80,640): Sold for $1 million as a 2 year old, Dabster has crossed the finish line first in all three starts, but was disqualified to fourth in his debut after drifting out. The Curlin colt has won both on and off the pace in his few starts. He had nearly 10 months between breaking his maiden and his recent allowance score, but his last race – which he came from mid-pack to win by a length and a half – shows he stands a good chance in this group looking to step up. High expectations that his potential talent comes out.
9.) C Z Rocket (7-2 – City Zip – Al Stall Jr. – 3-3-0-0 – $117,960): C Z Rocket did not make his debut until late summer, but has won all three starts since, rallying from the back each time. The Malibu will be his first shot at stakes company. If he remains consistent, he could be well on his way to making up that $800,000 price tag as a 2 year old. His last two works have been at Santa Anita, where he had the bullet for four furlongs Dec. 13 in :47.60, and followed that on Dec. 20 with the second fastest work in :47.80. Consistent threat coming from behind.