Making a case for Mendelssohn in Kentucky Derby 2018

A lot of ink has been spilled on Mendelssohn’s UAE Derby performance. Everyone agrees it was a good one, and enough to rank him among the top choices in the 2018 Kentucky Derby. But really, how good did this horse back on March 31 at Meydan?

Here, I’ll present some figures on his performance, compare it with other horses, and see how he fits in this Kentucky Derby field.

The final time: How fast did Mendelssohn really run?

Going 1 3/16 miles at Meydan does not attract many quality horses. It is mainly used for the UAE Derby and Oaks, races restricted to 3-year-olds, and some carnival races used as preps for the Dubai World Cup. As you can see below, Mendelssohn ran much faster than all of them.

The track bias: How does it really work?

Geometry says that for every meter away from the rail the horse travels, it covers approximately three extra meters per turn. Physics, on the other hand, suggests that the deeper the sand under a horse’s legs, the more energy he uses. Due to the inclination of turns, there is more sand closer to the rail compared to the outside part of the track.

When geometry and physics are balanced and cancel each other out, the track is considered to be fair. If not, the track is biased.

Meydan’s surface is one that most of the time, including the day Mendelssohn ran on it, has a strong inside (and consequently front-running) bias. It doesn’t make the horses benefiting from it run any faster. It just makes other horses record slower times. When analyzing races run on biased tracks, there are two main questions that need to be answered:

1. Was the race result determined by the track bias, and…

2. Was the final time aided or slowed by the track bias?

In this year’s UAE Derby, it’s obvious that Mendelssohn would have won anyway, with his final margin 18 1/2 lengths. Regarding Question 2, Mendelssohn’s final time was not necessarily aided. That occurs when a horse sets slow fractions on the lead and still draws off. That was not how Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby.



The UAE Derby Field: What did he beat?

Not much. None of his rivals would have any significant chance in the Kentucky Derby. A Kentucky Oaks contender, Rayya, was second, and Reride finished third, 21 1/2 lengths behind.

Pace analysis: How fast did Mendelssohn go?

Roy H won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Sprint in 1.08.61. The same day, Gun Runner recorded a six-furlong fraction of 1.10.50 — 1.9 seconds slower — on his way to winning the much longer Breeders’ Cup Classic.

On Dubai World Cup day, Mind Your Biscuits won the sprint in 1.10.12  while Mendelssohn covered his opening six furlongs in 1.11.9, which is 1.8 seconds slower than the sprinter’s winning time.

This analogy suggests that the opening 6/8 of the UAE Derby was as strong as the corresponding opening of the Classic. Gun Runner covered the first mile in 1.35.03, which gives a fourth quarter mile of 24.5. Mendelssohn’s fourth quarter was 24.4.

Without getting into the details of comparing times on different tracks, it is safe to assume that had Mendelssohn run in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic, after a mile he would be matching strides with Gun Runner. This is how strong the pace of the UAE Derby went: Gun Runner’s pace, give or take a couple of lengths.

To get a feel of how strong that pace was, have a look at Reride. See where he laid in the race compared to Mendelssohn, where he finished, and compare it to his performances in the USA against other Kentucky Derby contenders. In this case a picture — or, really, a video — is worth a thousand words. 

Before I continue with how Mendelssohn closed his race, let’s have a look at a chart with the fastest last 100 meters ever run over 1,900 meters at Meydan:

This question dazzled me for a while because it defies both logic and the visual image of the race. Mendelssohn was kept to his task by his jockey throughout the stretch and was wrapped up only in the final strides. I hand-timed the race, and the final time is correct. The last sectional, though, appears to be off by half a second, not just for Mendelssohn but for all the horses in that race. In Mendelssohn’s case it is more of a 12.4 and 6.5 instead of 12.9 and 6.0.

Let’s also compare Mendelssohn’s race to the Dubai World Cup. Thunder Snow is a typical case of both race and final time being determined by the track bias. He was handed the lead, allowed to set slow fractions and, being a closer, there was no way he was going to be caught. He too broke the track record, but not by much. Here is the chart of the 2018 Dubai World Cup:

This is the fastest nine furlongs ever run at Meydan, by the way. His final time converted to a 2,000-meter time is near to Thunder Snow’s final time. So picture this: Had Mendelssohn run in the Dubai World Cup, he would have been running about 10 lengths in front of everyone else and either won or lost by a small margin only to Thunder Snow.

I know that U.S. racing fans do not appreciate Thunder Snow that much, and may consider his World Cup win a fluke (which it probably is given the race circumstances). But consider this: Suppose West Coast forced the issue that day and led the race setting fractions similar to Mendelssohn. He would have been the one benefiting from the track bias, he would have forced Thunder Snow out of his comfort zone, and most probably would have won the race.

The question here is, how fast would he have he run? His ninth furlong was 12.2 compared to Mendelssohn’s 12.4 despite running two seconds slower in the first part of the race. Keep in mind that West Coast ran in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Could West Coast run as fast as Mendelssohn in the early part of the race and finish fast enough to set a final time considerably faster than Thunder Snow’s? I believe he could have run fast at the beginning, but his final time would not have been better (at least much better) that Thunder Snow.

To summarize this portion of the analysis, Mendelssohn’s UAE Derby performance appears fast enough to make him part of the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic pace and strong enough to finish in the money.

Where did this performance come from?

Entering the UAE Derby, Mendelssohn’s race plan was simple: Make the lead and take advantage of the track bias. He was used early, and as soon as he cleared the field his jockey tried to slow him down a bit. Fortunately, about a furlong into the race a horse came wide pushing hard for the lead. As soon as rider Ryan Moore noticed him, he started pushing again. As a result the race went fast, and we saw some greatness. What was also revealed was a running style, to go fast early, make the race collapse behind, and have stamina to continue late. Mendelssohn owes a lot to Yulong Warrior, the horse that made him go fast!

In all his previous outings, Mendelssohn was never allowed to open up early. He was raced the European way (go slow early and try to finish fast) — and despite winning races like this he was never allowed to show his true potential. He won races simply because he is much better than the horses he beat.

In his outing prior to the UAE Derby, he was restrained behind Threeandfourpence and positioned about a length in front of Seahenge in a slowly run race and struggled to win by ¾ of a length. These two horses both ran in the UAE Derby, and you can all see where they laid and where they finished.

In the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he found some pace but was then trapped behind horses in the rail until the last turn. He managed to win that day by a length. Something similar happened in the Dewhurst last year. Mendelssohn was restrained by his jockey and was never able to make a solid closing move, finishing second.

Story of his life pretty much.

Having misjudged horses myself, I don’t blame anyone of Team Mendelssohn, but the horse himself proved the tactics employed by his jockeys to be wrong. Mendelssohn is not a closer, and it took a biased dirt track and a rabbit to reveal his true self. I believe he always had this kind of performance in him, but he was never allowed to show it.

Is he capable of winning the Kentucky Derby?

I suggested before that Mendelssohn’s UAE Derby performance would have made him a Breeders’ Cup Classic contender. The majority of his 19 opponents in the Kentucky Derby would have not even finish in that race.

This does not make him a sure thing, though. He may be coming into the derby with the strongest race under his belt, but there is no rail this time. Breaking from Post 14, and not having the gate speed to clear the field, he could be wide throughout.

It’s up to Moore to ensure a fast pace and try to make the race collapse. If he does, it would take a lifetime best for any of his opponents to beat him. There are horses in the field capable of doing it, especially the undefeated ones. But Mendelssohn has a solid chance of becoming the first Aidan O’Brien-trained horse — and first shipping from Europe — to win the Kentucky Derby.

How does Rayya fit in the Oaks?

Rayya, the filly second in the UAE Derby, broke her maiden in her first outing. She looked good in doing so, and her final time was above average. In her next three starts, she went against Winter Lightning (Thunder Snow’s little sister) and after losing the first two by a nose over 1,400 meters, and by two lengths over a mile, she managed to turn the tables in the UAE Oaks.

The UAE Oaks, however, was a slowly run race where Rayya led and Winter Lightning was caught wide. Rayya did benefit from the track bias in the Oaks, but both she and Winter Lightning recorded solid times in their previous starts.

In the UAE Derby, Rayya was the main beneficiary of the track bias. She was skimming the rail and managed to finish second. The Godolphin horse in that race, Gold Town, was coming into the race with better times than Rayya. But being a victim of the track bias, he only managed fourth.

To Rayya’s credit, she was chasing Mendelssohn from the start. She only managed to go six furlongs with him and then she slowed along with other rivals. In order to determine Rayya’s chances in the Kentucky Oaks, we have to answer two questions:

1. Where would the Kentucky Oaks fillies finish had they run in either the UAE Derby or the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and…

2. Would you fancy Reride to win the Kentucky Oaks had he been entered in the race?

Question 1, I’ll leave this to each individual handicapper. Regarding Question 2, Rayya finished in front of Reride in the UAE Derby. Reride was wide on the first turn but not in the second. He also stayed away from that deadly fourth quarter of Mendelssohn, which destroyed the field allowing him to pass tiring rivals and finis third.

So, we have Rayya, who chased the pace and benefited from the track bias, and Reride, who did not go as fast as her but lost some ground in the first turn finishing three lengths behind her. There is not much between the two horses’ performances. So whether Reride fits with the Oaks field, it’s up to each one of us. Here is the chart of the UAE derby along with some facts regarding Rayya:

Rayya will not be a pace victim in the Kentucky Oaks.

Rayya has good speed and the Oaks distance is less than what she has already raced.

In the UAE Derby, she ran against males.

Author Savvas Lopez is a horse racing researcher. The more he studies the sport, the more he loves it. Savvas spends his professional life developing business software, and his personal life developing horse racing software.