Maker's Mark Mile fair odds: Find value against Carl Spackler

One of the reasons Chad Brown is one of the best trainers in the world is his ability to get horses ready for their biggest races.

It is a lesson I am reminded of when considering two of his top older horses in training: last year's championship 3-year-old male Sierra Leone and multiple Grade 1 winner Carl Spackler. Brown brought both along through full campaigns to peak in the Breeders' Cup. Sierra Leone's peak was good enough to win the Classic, and Carl Spackler had to settle for a hard-luck sixth in the Mile.

I mention this because Carl Spackler makes his seasonal debut in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile on Friday at Keeneland. Sierra Leone already made his 4-year-old debut, finishing third in the New Orleans Classic (G2) at Fair Grounds. Brown likely has meticulously planned these horses' returns to the Breeders' Cup at Del Mar, and that plan does not involve a lifetime best in the spring.

Can Carl Spackler still win? Of course. Is he worth a bet at the morning-line price of 8-5? No way.

Integration on the other hand already has run this year, pressing a fast pace in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), striking the lead in the stretch before losing to the Brown-trained Spirit of St Louis by a neck. Now Integration cuts back to a mile, and if somehow Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is able to move Integration forward, then he is extremely tough in here. Even maintaining the Pegasus form makes him playable at that 3-1 morning line price.

The gap between Integration and the next likely winner is a deep chasm compared with the small gap between Integration and Carl Spackler. I'm not anticipating any price to attract my attention beyond the top two except maybe Silent Heart, who has pressed fast paces recently while staying in. I could see him drifting to our 12-1 fair odds line.

As is, though, Integration looks like a win bet, and I'll watch the exacta pools for options with Carl Spackler. A chalky exacta, I know, but 6-1 on it would be OK.