Md. Million Classic fair odds: Long shot is poised for an upset

Making a fair-odds line for the Maryland Million Classic was tricky because the most likely winner of the 11 entered is marooned on the also-eligible list, needing three defections from the main body of eight Maryland-breds to draw in.

So, unlike my fair odds for the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Saturday at Keeneland, I decided not to factor the AEs into my line here. Just know that if Big Blue Line draws in, then I view him as the most likely winner and value at anything above even money.

Even if he does draw in, though, there still should be opportunity on Dolice Vita, who is 20-1 on the morning line and comes in off a decent prep for this, returning from a four-month layoff to finish third in a classified allowance two weeks ago.

That performance encourages me because he showed late interest after being left behind a runaway gate-to-wire winner. In fact, they went 1-2-3 all the way around the 1 1/16-mile race, but Dolice Vita managed to make up ground when earning a 104 Brisnet late pace rating. Now back out to 1 1/8 miles, the Dortmund gelding could be more involved early, and hopefully late, at a big price.

Of the logicals, Double Crown, Ournationonparade and All Threes are fairly evenly matched. I give a slight preference to All Threes, who has shown some punch late even in races he's been near the lead. The pace could be spirited, though, which is another reason Dolice Vita intrigues at a big price.

Wagering wise, if Big Blue Line draws in then I will key him with Dolice Vita in all gimmicks and expect to make a win bet on Dolice Vita regardless of the final field given the 20-1 morning line against my 9-2 fair odds.