Fair odds: Lukas Classic has 1 horse who will excite bettors

Hit Show will be coming with his run, but will it be good enough to reel in loose on the lead Cooke Creek?

At least for me with designs on betting this race, that is the key question of handicapping the Grade 2, $500,000 Lukas Classic on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

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As you can see from my fair odds, I do think Hit Show is the most likely winner of this race, but expectedly an underlay. His West Virginia Governor’s Cup (G3) win last out was impressive, and a similar mid-pack voyage seems likely against these

Unfortunately for Hit Show, a mid-pack voyage in this spot may face rocky waters. That’s because Cooke Creek figures to set sail quickest of this group given his lone speed projection via TimeformUS and his eight Quirin Speed Points on Brisnet past performances. Quirin ranks early speed on a 0-8 scale with eight being the most early speed.

Stiletto Boy has six points, and no one else in the field has more than four. Considering Stiletto Boy is overmatched and no threat in my mind to win this race at all, that’s a big advantage for Cooke Creek to be on the lead with your lone pursuer a bazillion-to-1.

Bettors will be quick to note Cooke Creek’s meteoric rise and question whether he can handle this class, but he won a stakes in his second career start. That would be his last win for 15 starts. But in between winning the Rocky Run Stakes and a $40,000 claimer, Cooke Creek figured out how to be a speed horse. He won that claimer gate to wire, and in his first two starts for trainer Mike Maker following the claim, he won two more races on or near the pace.

Now comes the class test, but lone speed against this group is a powerful weapon.

On the opposite end of the pace spectrum is Happy American, a closer who more often than not doesn’t get there but runs consistently fast enough to always be intriguing at the likely price. For instance, Happy American has gone off at 15-1 or longer in each of his last seven starts.

Warrior Johny is the other worth board watching for. The Whitney (G1) was a complete clunker, but the Charles Town Classic (G2) showed some signs of life with good races to build back to.

I’m most excited to bet Cooke Creek at his fair odds or better, but if Hit Show gets really steamed then, Happy American or Warrior Johny could be better value.