Louisville fair odds: Marathon distance will benefit this gelding

With some known names in the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs and Tapit Shoes riding a three-race losing streak into the 1 1/2-mile turf event, there is likely to be some value on the Tapit gelding to get back in the win column.

Utah Beach is an understandable morning-line favorite off that head victory in the Elkhorn Stakes, but he picks up five pounds from that winning effort. Sugoi is the third choice on the line, coming in off a freshening after fading in the Mac Diarmida (G2). His early foot merits some respect here but not sure we'll get the right price on this $6,000 yearling purchase who has earned $795,568.

Tapit Shoes has never gone this far, but there is no reason to suspect the 1 1/2-mile trip will hinder this one's chances considering he has a win going 1 1/8 miles on turf and 1 1/4 miles on synthetic. Sometimes he has too much to do, but he can be closer going this route.

Missed the Cut and Rebel Red are both projected to take money and are the fades for me in this group despite both being trained by the ultra-dangerous Cherie DeVaux whose charges are warming up this spring after a cool April.

Tapit Shoes has a similar style to the DeVaux runners, but the Brisnet Pace Ratings suggest that he might get first run on those closers.

Coverage of Churchill Downs stakes races at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a co-operative marketing agreement with the host racetrack and Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.