Louisville fair odds: Play this alternative to formidable favorite

Trainer Charlie Appleby needs no introduction. His charges are an other-worldly 33-for-85 in North American stakes since 2017 and 8-for-15 in 1 1/2-mile races, including multiple Breeders' Cup Turf triumphs.

But with that kind of success comes attention in the wagering pools, so it is no surprise that Bold Act is the morning line favorite for the Louisville Stakes (G3) on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Bold Act disappointed when losing as the 14-25 favorite in the Elkhorn Stakes (G2) in April at Keeneland, but that race was likely better than it looked given the traffic trouble and the fact that winner Silver Knott came back to win the Man O'War Stakes at Aqueduct.

Still, I'm not sure Bold Act wins this race half the time, which makes even money (or worse) a terrible bet.

Avenue snapped an eight-race losing streak when winning a second-level allowance race going 1 1/4 miles on synthetic in March at Turfway Park. His other two wins were on turf, however, and he was a credible third in the 2022 Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) at this distance at Del Mar.

I think the price will be right to try him on top and key him underneath Bold Act.