Louisiana Derby odds & analysis: Proxy deserves another try
With a well-matched field in the $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, handicappers might either love the challenge of analyzing similar talent or wish for a legitimate standout to structure tickets around.
Perhaps those bettors could spread their tickets in multi-race wagers and count on one horse for a straight wager. Of the main contenders, there is one horse who shows a nice pedigree for the 1 3/16-mile distance and gets a notable equipment change. This grinder deserves one more chance to prove he can finish off a race.
The Louisiana Derby is carded as Race 14 with a post time of 7:44 EDT.
1. Starrininmydreams, 20-1 (Super Saver – Dallas Stewart/Luis Saez – 3: 2-0-0 - $97,064): Trainer Dallas Stewart knows how to reach the Kentucky Derby with long shots, but this long shot is hopelessly overmatched on paper. If the 27-length loss in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) does not seem discouraging enough, then his sprinter-oriented pedigree on the dam side is another obstacle to overcome. The only positive is the presence of Luis Saez, who figures to give him a decent ride. Toss.
2. Rightandjust, 20-1 (Awesome Again – Shane Wilson/Colby Hernandez – 4: 2-0-0 - $54,820): This pacesetter made a step forward in the Risen Star by earning a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest of his four-race career. Unfortunately, he faded to sixth in the stretch, losing by 7 3/4 lengths to Mandaloun after receiving early pressure from Midnight Bourbon. Now, Rightandjust stretches out beyond nine furlongs against the same trio who completed the Risen Star trifecta after fading against them before. He should become a pace factor once more before weakening, because of either Midnight Bourbon pressuring him again or the new blood Run Classic flashing his speed. The Derby trail is one step above Rightandjust’s current level, but he might develop later. Toss.
3. Run Classic, 12-1 (Runhappy – Bret Calhoun/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 2: 1-1-0 - $46,000): The eye-catching Feb. 13 maiden win is nice from a visual standpoint. After stalking the pace, Run Classic took over on the turn and put the field away with mild urging to score by 3 1/4 lengths. While Runhappy’s career as a sire is in the beginning stages, most of his progeny improve with time and more racing. The concern lies in Run Classic’s dam side. He stretches out to 1 3/16 miles after his maiden win at 1 1/16 miles, but the bottom half of his pedigree is dominated by sprint influences. Sometimes horses outrun their bloodlines, though. As a second strike, he lacks important graded-stakes experience and jumps into one after only a maiden win in his second career start. Despite those concerns, Run Classic’s raw talent alone makes him usable for the bottom slots of trifectas and superfectas. Use underneath.
4. Proxy, 7/2 (Tapit – Michael Stidham/John Velazquez – 5: 2-3-0 - $187,700): Even after Proxy’s second runner-up finish on the Derby trail, there are good reasons to give this grinder one more shot. For one, he sports a nice pedigree for the Louisiana Derby distance with Tapit on top and Panty Raid on the bottom. As most fans remember, Tapit has been the sire of three Belmont Stakes winners already. Panty Raid won the 2007 American Oaks (G1) at 1 1/4 miles and the Spinster Stakes (G1) later in a successful seven-figure earning career. In addition, Proxy receives blinkers for the first time. Stidham took this route with another long-winded runner in his barn, Mystic Guide, who went on to capture the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and finish second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) after the equipment change. Proxy’s flaw comes from running at the same pace. In the Risen Star, he briefly lost contact with the three horses in front while approaching the far turn. Then, it took Proxy the entire stretch run to crawl his way into second, giving Mandaloun time to separate a bit before wire and lock up the victory. The blinkers are supposed to help him focus more. Perhaps this is a case of Lucy taking away the football from Charlie Brown again, but Proxy takes the top spot in this analysis. If he fails with a longer distance and added blinkers, then he is helpless. The pick.
5. Hot Rod Charlie, 3-1 (Oxbow – Leandro Mora/Joel Rosario – 6: 1-1-2 - $395,700): Off the layoff, Hot Rod Charlie put in a decent effort in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) to finish third. He still could not pass a tired Medina Spirt in the stretch after receiving a pace setup from mid-pack. To his credit, Hot Rod Charlie had to fight his stretch battle while compromised between Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian. Last year, Hot Rod Charlie ran second to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, losing by only 3/4 of a length. Essential Quality won his return race this year in the Southwest Stakes (G3) after taking advantage of an outside bias on slop. The Juvenile third-place finisher Keepmeinmind was flat in his season debut by finishing sixth in the Rebel Stakes (G2), eight lengths behind Concert Tour. Hot Rod Charlie’s bottom side pedigree is not an asset, as this is a half-brother to the brilliant sprinter/miler Mitole. Hot Rod Charlie’s damsire is Indian Charlie, arguably also a sprint influence. On the plus side, his best TimeformUS numbers are on par with Mandaloun, Proxy and Midnight Bourbon. He is tough to read. Toss him in multi-race wagers, just in case he proves the West Coast is best. Win contender.
6. Mandaloun, 8/5 (Into Mischief – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 4: 3-0-1 - $351,252): After losing in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) as the 4-5 favorite, Mandaloun took the Risen Star Stakes (G2) with blinkers added. He won by stalking the pace and taking over in the stretch over a stubborn Midnight Bourbon. Proxy came back into the picture late, but Mandaloun had made a small cushion by then and won by 1 1/4 lengths with a 113 on TimeformUS. From Post 6, Mandaloun is a threat to receive a similar wide stalking trip. Assuming he can handle the slightly longer distance and new faces, he is going to prove tough a tough customer again. Given he won at nine furlongs, an extra half furlong is not supposed to beat him. Backers receive short odds again, though, and 1 1/4 lengths is not an insurmountable margin for Proxy to overcome — or even Midnight Bourbon if he steps forward. Mandaloun also takes on the West Coast invader Hot Rod Charlie for the first time and new blood in Run Classic. He might win and give his supporters excitement leading into the Kentucky Derby. But his 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is nothing special, nor is his 100 BRIS Speed Rating. Mandaloun is a better horse to use defensively in multi-race wagers rather than key in other bets. Win contender.
7. Midnight Bourbon, 5-1 (Tiznow – Steven Asmussen/Joseph Talamo – 6: 2-1-3 - $261,420): The Lecomte winner faded slightly to third in the Risen Star Stakes after pressing the long shot Rightandjust through moderately fast fractions. However, Midnight Bourbon faces his pace opponent Rightandjust once more, in addition to his two familiar rivals Mandaloun and Proxy again. Plus, Run Classic might provide added early speed as he stretches out from a shorter route. In other words, Midnight Bourbon must deal with Rightandjust and Run Classic up front, while holding off Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie on the far turn and Proxy in the stretch run. Although Tiznow progeny improve with time, this is a difficult assignment. From a figure standpoint, his 112 on TimeformUS is only one point off Mandaloun. Midnight Bourbon also draws well in Post 7, allowing Talamo to watch the break. If Run Classic takes up the dirty work of pressing Rightandjust, then Midnight Bourbon can settle into a stalking position and save some energy. Regardless, he is the third best horse in this analysis, behind Proxy and Mandaloun. Win contender.
8. O Besos, 15-1 (Orb – Gregory Foley/Marcelino Pedroza – 4: 2-0-0 - $72,624): O Besos had good fortune help his path to completing the superfecta in the Risen Star Stakes. While he never made up ground on the leaders, Rightandjust faded in the stretch and Señor Buscador’s far turn rally came to a halt. O Besos went past Rightandjust and held off Señor Buscador by a nose for fourth, giving his connections justification for attempting this prep race. As stated, though, he never made a real move. After hovering five or six lengths behind the leader for most of the race, he still lost by 7 1/2 lengths even though his position improved to fourth. Now, he faces the same trio in front of him before, as well as Hot Rod Charlie and Run Classic. For bettors who play the superfecta, they might want to toss this long shot in the fourth slot, just in case he finds more luck in the stretch run. Use underneath.
Conclusion:
The final bet is Proxy to win and place. Given his two recent runner-up finishes, the place bet is especially important in case he fails to finish off the job again. The blinkers are supposed to help. Proxy needs to stay at 3-1 or higher for fair odds.
If Proxy falls below 3-1, he is underlaid.
Proxy, Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie are the four horses to consider in multi-race wagers. If pressed to save money, cut off either Midnight Bourbon or Hot Rod Charlie, or think about limiting them to a B or C slot.