Louisiana Derby fair odds: Don't bet the post-time favorite

The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby is one of those races where my entire strategy for betting the race hinges on the morning line being completely wrong.

Chip Honcho would provide fair value at exactly his 3-1 morning line, but Emerging Market would be incredible value at his 6-1 morning line. Horse Racing Nation, which provides the official morning line to Santa Anita Park, Colonial Downs, Laurel Park and Louisiana Downs, projects Emerging Market in the 2-1 to 5-2 range, though, and that makes Chip Honcho the clear value at something like 7-2 or 4-1.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert shipping in Blacksmith and trainer Cherie DeVaux back with Lecomte (G3) winner Chip Honcho also figure to take money. Indeed, the recently concluded Kentucky Derby Future Wager portends both Emerging Market and Golden Tempo as lower than Chip Honcho.

OK, fine, Chip Honcho ends up anywhere from second to fourth choice in the field of nine going 1 3/16 miles Saturday at Fair Grounds. Great. Why are we excited about that?

Well, two things.

First, I love his career development under the steady hands of Steve Asmussen and the Hall of Fame trainer's team. He improved last out but not drastically so. He is getting better as the distances get longer, and teaming up with jockey Luis Saez last out when stretching out to 1 1/8 miles while almost beating Derby favorite Paladin was a great sign.

Also, the pace is in his favor. This Connect colt out of the Magician mare Miss My Rose should just keep going as the distances get longer. Looking at the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, Chip Honcho is the only "E" type in the Louisiana Derby, and his 8 Quirin Speed Points put him squarely on the front end against others.

Come Saturday, I will be looking to take a stand with Chip Honcho in multi-race wagers and key him in vertical exotics.