Louisiana Derby fair odds: Instant Coffee is in hot water

Seeing a 12-horse field and a 2-1 morning line favorite for the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) had me very excited to create fair odds for this race because I immediately knew that no horse should be 2-1 here. In other words, I don't think any horse wins this race at least a third of the time.

No. 2 Instant Coffee is the most likely winner, but given my fair odds of 7-2 and a morning line of 2-1, it's safe to assume that there is no chance he will be the necessary price to warrant a bet. And if he actually is 2-1, the question for me becomes how bullish do I want to get on beating him out of the trifecta in a 12-horse field, which would be very lucrative indeed.

We'll worry about the answer to that question closer to race day and for now focus on assessing the chances of each horse to win.

No. 9 Tapit's Conquest disappointed last out visually, but the proprietary data related to his performance portends a better showing against this group. His 10-1 morning line would be value against my 6-1 fair odds.

Both No. 10 Denington and No. 7 Cagliostro were the cold exacta in an allowance race on the Risen Star undercard that was supposed to be the coming out parties of either even-money Banishing or 2-1 First Defender. But they disappointed and the aforementioned pair show up here in the Louisiana Derby after earning fast figures in the allowance.

I give a slight preference to Denington because of pedigree. He's by Gun Runner, and Cagliostro is by Upstart. But I am concerned that both are coming off Lasix and, more to wit, were on Lasix for their best performances.

The only horse I don't like at all is No. 8 Single Ruler, who took a step back from a number that already was not in contention against this group. And although a win would surprise me with No. 12 Baseline Beater, if he moves forward again there's potential to fill out the bottom end of an exotic.