Louisiana Derby fair odds: Top trainer treads familiar dirt path

We've seen this move from Todd Pletcher before. In fact, it happened just last year.

The Hall of Fame trainer has won three of the last nine editions of the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, and he will look to go back-to-back on Saturday in a similar manner to last year's triumph.

Like Kingsbarns, Agate Road last raced in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Admittedly, that is where the similarities end, as Kingsbarns scored a frontrunning victory under Flavien Prat, and Agate Road will look to come from off the pace under Irad Ortiz Jr.

Still, Pletcher is adept at this path to get to the Kentucky Derby, which would be guaranteed with the 100 points the winner receives in this spot.

Agate Road bested 10 others in the Davis, closing from 11th of 12 to finish second, beaten 1 1/4 lengths by No More Time, who went on to finish second to Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby. Agate Road should enjoy the presence of uncoupled stablemate Antiquarian, who will not doubt be pressing morning line favorite Track Phantom to help set things up.

Another closer I like at the expected price has something in common with Kingsbarns, too. Prat rides Catching Freedom, who has a lot of variables in his favor for this race. The extra half-furlong and fast track should help this Constitution colt.

Based on morning line, Agate Road looks to be the better play, but if gets over bet then Catching Freedom would work. Either way, I'd love to be locked into both to close out the Bayou-Bluegrass Pick 5. For more on that wager, check out the video below.