Louisiana Derby fair odds: Beat chalk in Kentucky Derby prep

After being willing to lean on shorter prices in both the Muniz Memorial Stakes presented by Horse Racing Nation (G2) and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), I am off to hunt slightly bigger game in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

Obviously this 100-points-to-the-winner race on Saturday at the Fair Grounds is a juggernaut in terms of Kentucky Derby 2025 implications, especially with its unique 1 3/16-mile distance vs. the other 1 1/8-mile preps such as the Ruby.

A lot could be on the line for bettors as well. The Louisiana Derby anchors both the all-stakes Pick 5 at Fair Grounds and the all-stakes Bayou-Bluegrass Pick 5 featuring a trio of races from Fair Grounds plus a pair at Turfway.

That multi-track sequence looks chalky overall, especially given the presence of 2024 champion 3-year-old male and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone kicking things off in the New Orleans Classic (G2). Perhaps an opportunity to beat the obvious choice in the Louisiana Derby can help the payoff at the end of the day.

John Hancock certainly has earned the favorite's mantle in the Louisiana Derby by virtue of winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes over Owen Almighty, who returned to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Poster was third that day. He is one of the top betting choices and my top selection in the Jeff Ruby.

Things are different in Louisiana Derby, though. Both Yinzer and Furio have legitimate speed to tussle with or even outrun John Hancock early. The rail makes things tricky from that perspective as well, since sitting behind a dueling pace risks getting shuffled back. As the shortest price, I'll play against.

Built ran well in defeat in the Risen Star (G2), chasing runaway winner Magnitude and holding on for third with only Chunk of Gold passing him late coming down a good rail to do it. I don't think any horse in this field is capable of what we saw from Magnitude last out. To be fair, I didn't think Magnitude was capable of what we saw from Magnitude, so I guess you never know. But from a wagering perspective, I'll bet against that type of performance from any of the frontrunners, and that leaves Built in a good spot.

Instant Replay dazzled last time, and I've been suspect of these Brad Cox-trained runners stepping up in class ever since Patch Adams burned me this year, but John Hancock did it, and so can Instant Replay. I also like that his style is not as a deep closer, so he will get the jump on horses like Chunk of Gold and maybe Hypnus, who a lot of people like but isn't for me.

I'll play mostly thin to win here and hope to get live to both Built and Instant Replay in all the various multi-race bets.