Louisiana Derby: Odds, analysis for Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s Grade 2, $1 million, Louisiana Derby is the fourth and final stop on the Fair Grounds road to Kentucky Derby 2026, with 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points available to the top five finishers.

The Louisiana Derby drew a field of nine 3-year-olds who will go 1 3/16 miles, the longest distance on the Kentucky Derby trail. They will vie for 200 qualifying points for the first time. The first- and second-place finishers will earn enough points to race at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Four horses come to Fair Grounds with enough points that the additional points from a third or a fourth would get them in the run for the toses field.

Overall, five horses already have raced on the Derby trail, and the other four have only maiden special wins. Pavlovian, Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo each have a victory on the road to the Derby.

Here is the analysis for the Louisiana Derby with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as race 12 on a 14-race card with post time set for 6:42 p.m. EDT.

1. Pavlovian, 6-1. Pavel – Doug O’Neill / Edwin Maldonado – 9: 2-3-1 - $413,450. Pavlovian is a California-bred who made seven of his starts against state-breds. He broke his maiden in his second start at Santa Anita in June as an early juvenile runner. He tried the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar and finished second behind Desert Gate from Bob Baffert. The son of Pavel ran in four Cal-bred stakes without a victory, including his first start this year. He moved onto the Derby trail and won 20 qualifying points in the Sunland Derby in February. Hot Rod Charlie won the Louisiana Derby in 2021 for O’Neill. Derby trail winner.

2. Autobahn, 8-1. Nyquist – Brad Cox / Marcelino Pedroza Jr. – 3: 1-0-1 - $48,000. Autobahn broke his maiden in his third race at Gulfstream Park, beating a field of six by almost six lengths. Before that he ran behind a couple of horses who did not run well when they eventually tried the Derby trail. Cox won the Louisiana Derby in 2024 with Catching Freedom and in 2020. Toss.

3. Chip Honcho, 3-1. Connect – Steve Asmussen / Luis Saez – 5: 2-2-0 - $260,475. Chip Honcho will have run in all four of the Fair Grounds Derby preps, with a win in the Gun Runner, a fourth in the Lecomte (G3) and a close second in the Risen Star (G2) last month. That gives him 39 qualifying points, which would be enough in many years to get into the field. A top five finish on Saturday likely would secure his position. Asmussen is a five-time winner of this race, including last year, 2022 with Epicenter and Gun Runner in 2016. Win contender.

4. Universe, 12-1. Global Campaign – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 6: 1-2-1 - $259,650. Universe will make his fifth start on the Derby trail and his second at Fair Grounds. He picked up points in the Risen Star and in three races for 2-year-olds, the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Street Sense (G3) and Champagne (G1). With 23 qualifying points in hand, he will need a top-four finish in this 100-point prep race. McPeek was a past winner of this race in 2002. Use underneath.

5. Golden Tempo, 7-2. Curlin – Cherie DeVaux / Jose Ortiz – 3: 2-0-1 - $233,000. Golden Tempo made all three of his starts at the New Orleans track. He rallied from last to first in a debut maiden race with 10 horses at odds of 5-2. The Phipps and St. Elias Stable homebred then won his Derby-trail debut in the Lecomte. In a much tougher field in the Risen Star, Golden Tempo finished third. He has 35 qualifying points from those two Derby preps and should benefit from experience gained. Leading Fair Grounds rider Jose Ortiz stays on board, and blinkers go on. Top pick.

6. Spirit of Royal, 20-1. Global Campaign – Dallas Stewart / Franciso Arrieta – 7: 1-1-0 - $121,164. Spirit of Royal broke his maiden in his sixth try, which was at Oaklawn in January when he rallied from the back of an 11-horse field with first-time Lasix. He moved to the Derby trail and finished ninth in the Southwest (G3). He will be a long shot on Saturday, but that never deters this trainer. Dallas Stewart was a 1999 winner of this race. Toss.

7. Blacksmith, 6-1. Liam’s Map – Bob Baffert / Florent Geroux – 5: 1-2-1 - $103,600. Blacksmith broke his maiden in his fifth start, which was at Santa Anita last month going a mile as the odds-on favorite in a five-horse field. In December, he raced on the Derby trail in Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), finished second to another Baffert runner and got five qualifying points. The Louisiana Derby is not a Derby prep that Baffert enters very often, and his only victory there was in 2004. Toss.

8. Easterly, 6-1. Uncle Mo – Brad Cox / Edgard Zayas - 2: 1-1-0 - $49,600. Easterly is yet another Brad Cox 3-year-old on the Derby trail. He broke his maiden in his second try at Gulfstream in a field of seven going two turns with first-time Lasix. In his December debut in a field of five, he went to post at 10-1 and ran second behind the Derby trail winner Class President. The better Cox runner.

9. Emerging Market, 6-1. Candy Ride – Chad Brown / Flavin Prat – 1: 1-0-0 - $18,880. Emerging Market was a debut winner last month at Tampa Downs in a field of nine going two turns at odds of 3-1. The race came back fast, earning him a 97 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. That number and jockey Flavien Prat staying on board certainly will make him a favorite of the betters. Win contender.

Summary: The Louisiana Derby comes on the first weekend where the 100-50-25-15-10 points are available. This field of nine has four Derby trail veterans who need to get more points but do not need to win to make the Kentucky Derby, and there are others who must finish first or second. Thus, some of these 3-year-olds might be at peak fitness for this Fair Grounds finale, and others might want to save some conditioning for the first Saturday in May.

Can Chad Brown have Emerging Market at 100% after that fast debut win on Feb. 7, and is he good enough to pick up 50 or 100 points? The question applies to Brad Cox and Easterly after his second behind a Derby trail winner and his subsequent maiden victory, also on Feb. 7.

Golden Tempo impressed in his Derby trail victory in the Lecomte, and was third in the Risen Star an expected outcome for trainer Cherie DeVaux on the road to the Kentucky Derby? Three sharp workouts since that Feb. 14 Derby prep indicate that the son of Curlin will be at the top of his game on Saturday and still have seven weeks until the big race in May. Golden Tempo is my top pick in the Louisiana Derby.