Louisiana Derby 2022: Odds and analysis
The $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Race Course on Saturday offers Kentucky Derby contenders the opportunity to compete for the most points (100-40-20-10) at the longest distance, 1 3/16 miles.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Louisiana Derby, which is scheduled as race 12 along, with the official track morning-line odds. Post time for the race is set for 6:44 p.m. EDT.
1. Silent Power (50-1 – Strong Mandate – Scott Gelner / Gerard Melancon – 8: 1-1-0 - $44,242 – 0 Derby points) Silent Power moves from two starts at Delta Downs this year in which he finished fourth to try the Derby trail. Most recently he got within a length of the top spot going seven furlongs in a restricted stakes race. Toss.
2. Zozos (8-1 – Munnings – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 2: 2-0-0 - $91,200 - 0 Derby points) Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox does not have a big-name 3-year-old at this point, but he does have a couple of promising lightly raced horses such as Zozos. He won his only two starts, a maiden win at Fair Grounds and a 10-length allowance victory at Oaklawn that earned noteworthy speed figures. That win earned him a spot in the fourth Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This is clearly an ambitious spot, making his first appearance on the Derby trail in a Grade 1 race going 9 1/2 furlongs. Coming from the Cox barn with two wins and no losses, he is likely to attract more than his share of attention from the betting public. Interesting newcomer.
3. Call Me Midnight (6-1 – Midnight Lute – Keith Desormeaux / James Graham – 7: 2-1-0 - $221,806 - 10 Derby points) Call Me Midnight was last seen racing in January, when his late rally from eighth defeated Epicenter by a head in the Lecomte (G3). That was his only start of 2022. After that victory on the Derby trail, he returned to training at Fair Grounds a couple of weeks after the race and has stayed in training since, gradually adding distance to his breezes with the most recent going six furlongs. He is son of champion sprinter Midnight Lute and has handled distance up to 1 1/16 miles thus far, but he will have to handle an extra furlong now. Win contender.
4. Curly Tail (30-1 – Curlin– Dallas Stewart / Colby Hernandez– 6: 1-0-0 - $63,916 – 0 Derby points) Curly Tail broke his maiden in his sixth start at Oaklawn Park last month going two turns at odds of 6-1 in a field of nine with a closing move. Dallas Stewart has snuck into the exotics at big odds before. Use underneath.
5. Kupuna (8-1 – Hard Spun – Bret Calhoun / Reylu Gutierrez – 4: 1-2-1 - $97,400 – 0 Derby points) Kupuna broke his maiden in his third race at Oaklawn Park in January and then finished second in an allowance at Fair Grounds behind Cyberknife for Bret Calhoun. At least there is room for improvement with this guy. Use underneath.
6. Epicenter (7-5 – Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 5: 3-1-0 - $410,639 - 64 Derby points) Epicenter is just a head shy from winning his last four starts. Before his visually impressive front-end victory in the Risen Star (G2), he got nailed at the wire in the Lecomte (G3). His 64 Derby points put him in second place on the Derby leaderboard and certainly in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. In the Risen Star, he earned the kind of speed figure that fits with recent Derby winners. He won that race easily by carving out fast, steady fractions without any pressure and was geared down in the final 100 yards or so. Typically, Steve Asmussen’s top runners get stronger the more they race, so there is no reason to expect anything but a top effort from Epicenter again. Top choice.
7. Pioneer of Medina (5-1 – Pioneerof the Nile – Todd Pletcher / Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 2-1-1 - $81,350 - 5 Derby points) Pioneer of Medina was second to Epicenter in the early going in the Risen Star but then faded to finish fourth. In his two prior races he was able to get to the front and stay there against small fields. Now he’s back against another strong group, and I like others better. Toss.
8. Galt (8-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 5: 1-0-0 - $45,475 – 1 Derby point) Galt is hard to figure in this race. He went to the lead in the Holy Bull (G3), set the pace for six furlongs and finished fourth. Then in the Fountain of Youth (G2) he lost his rider at the back of the field. Bill Mott brings him back to race, so he must he must be ready to run. Live long shot.
9. Rattle N Roll (6-1 – Connect – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 5: 2-0-1 - $383,460 - 10 Derby points) Rattle N Roll picked a tough spot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) to make his 2022 debut. He was bet to 9-2 based on his victory in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) as a 2-year-old where he defeated the current Derby points leader Classic Causeway. He finished a non-threatening sixth at Gulfstream Park and now has his work cut out for him in this field. Not sure why we should expect a significant improvement only three weeks after that performance. McPeek did not breeze Rattle N Roll in that time period. Toss.
Summary: Epicenter is likely to get loose on the lead again in the lead in the Louisiana Derby and be an unchallenged winner, with the race being for the rest of the Derby qualifying points.
Zozos, Call Me Midnight, Galt, and Kupuna are the top contenders to finish in the top four.