Louisiana Derby 2021 guide: Odds, picks and analysis

The 2021 Kentucky Derby field will take shape over the next four weekends as eight races award Derby points on a 100-40-20-10 scale. The first of those events runs Saturday in New Orleans.

Eight 3-year-olds will line up for Saturday’s 108th renewal of the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby. Post time from Fair Grounds is 6:44 p.m. EDT, with NBCSN and TVG both airing the 1 3/16-mile race.

Fair Grounds’ first two Kentucky Derby preps, the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2), featured the same three runners on the board in both races. Midnight Bourbon went gate-to-wire in the Lecomte, followed home by Proxy and Mandaloun, while Mandaloun rallied to take the Risen Star ahead of Proxy and Midnight Bourbon.

That trio is lined up to square off again Saturday in the Louisiana Derby.

Mandaloun, with jockey Florent Geroux aboard, garnered 8-5 morning-line favoritism for trainer Brad Cox. Cox and Geroux teamed up to win last year’s Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou.

Proxy (7-2) and Midnight Bourbon (5-1) are back in the starting gate for conditioners Michael Stidham and Steve Asmussen, respectively.

The Louisiana-based trio faces a new shooter Saturday in Hot Rod Charlie (3-1), the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up. Shipping in from California, he will be piloted by jockey Joel Rosario, who seeks another Derby trail win after booting home Concert Tour last weekend in Oaklawn Park’s Rebel Stakes (G2).

Doug O’Neill assistant Leandro Mora will be listed as Hot Rod Charlie’s trainer of record for the Louisiana Derby.

Four runners carry morning-line odds of 12-1 or greater, including Run Classic, a maiden winner on the Risen Star card last month. His trainer, Bret Calhoun, took this event in 2019 with By My Standards.

The fourth-place finisher in that 2019 Louisiana Derby, Country House, was elevated to a Kentucky Derby win later that spring. The last Louisiana Derby hero to take the Run for the Roses was Grindstone in 1996 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

Here is a look at the 2021 Louisiana Derby field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Starrininmydreams (Dallas Stewart, Luis Saez), 20-1

2. Rightandjust (Shane Wilson, Colby Hernandez), 20-1

3. Run Classic (Bret Calhoun, Brian Hernandez Jr.), 12-1

4. Proxy (Michael Stidham, John Velazquez), 7-2

5. Hot Rod Charlie (Leandro Mora, Joel Rosario), 3-1

6. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 8-5

7. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Joe Talamo), 5-1

8. O Besos (Greg Foley, Marcelino Pedroza), 15-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show long shot Rightandjust making the lead under jockey Colby Hernandez, tracked closely by Midnight Bourbon. Favorite Mandaloun is expected to do his running from mid-pack.

For more information on both the Louisiana Derby and Muniz Memorial Classic (G2), visit HRN’s free past performances page.

Louisiana Derby links

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis go head-to-head handicapping the Louisiana Derby, analyzing all eight runners. Both writers pick familiar faces from Fair Grounds’ 2021 3-year-old series to win the track’s biggest event.

Proxy was second-best in both the Lecomte and Risen Star, but Reinier Macatangay thinks the Godolphin homebred can finally earn a Kentucky Derby trail win. Note that Proxy adds blinkers Saturday.

For more in-depth Louisiana Derby handicapping, sign up for Super Screener.

Hot Rod Charlie is among six horses on Keeler Johnson’s watch list who will run in graded stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds. Three of his highlighted runners will tangle for a Kentucky Oaks berth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

Fields are filling for some of the other Kentucky Derby prep races on tap for the next few weekends. See where Keepmeinmind, Roman Centurian and Spielberg are likely to appear.

This week on HorseCenter, hosts Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse reveal their new Kentucky Derby top 10 rankings and pick both the Fair Grounds Oaks and Louisiana Derby.

A quartet of Kentucky Derby trail contenders seem to have set themselves apart from the rest of the bunch. Ron Flatter asked racing experts whether the Derby is shaping up to be a four-horse race and if another runner – say, Mandaloun – can join the top tier.

Other Saturday stakes

Courtesy of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, here is a look at some of the other graded-stakes races taking place Saturday:

4:48 p.m. EDT – $100,000 Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3), Gulfstream Park, TVG

If e Five Racing Thoroughbreds’ Sound Machine can notch her first graded-stakes success in Saturday’s Hurricane Bertie, it will be music to trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s ears. Sound Machine is winless in seven starts since capturing the 6½-furlong Glitter Woman by 6½ lengths in January 2020, but she produced a graded-stakes finish in the Miss Preakness (G3) at Pimlico, where she rallied to third, beaten 1½ lengths, after getting bumped at the start.

5:12 p.m. EDT – $400,000 New Orleans Classic (G2), Fair Grounds, TVG 

Multiple graded-stakes winner Owendale headlines a competitive field of eight older horses for Saturday’s 96th running of the New Orleans Classic. Trained by Brad Cox, Owendale began his 5-year-old campaign with a third-place effort in the Razorback (G3) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 27 behind top Dubai World Cup (G1) contender Mystic Guide. The Into Mischief colt will break from post 2 with Florent Geroux aboard as he eyes his first graded stakes score since his 3-year-old campaign.

5:43 p.m. EDT – $300,000 Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes (G2), Fair Grounds, TVG

Since switching Colonel Liam to the grass, trainer Todd Pletcher has found himself with a new stable star on his hands, one who can further enhance his budding reputation when he starts in Saturday’s Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes contested at 1 1/8 miles over the Stall-Wilson Turf Course. The expectations Colonel Liam has carried since being purchased for $1.2 million at the 2019 OBS April 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale were met in his last start when he prevailed in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) on Jan. 23. Since making his first two starts on dirt, Colonel Liam has won three of his four tries on the turf.

6:14 p.m. EDT – $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Fair Grounds, NBCSN and TVG

Something will have to give when Clairiere and Travel Column meet for the third time in a row, this time with a lot more than the $400,000 that’s on the line in the Fair Grounds Oaks. The talented 3-year-old fillies meet again, with a berth into the Kentucky Oaks waiting in the balance, along with 170 qualifying points for the race, on a 100-40-20-10 scale. Clairiere pulled off a slight upset when she beat Travel Column in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) on Feb. 13, winning a stretch duel by a neck. Clairiere was making her seasonal debut and first start since running second to Travel Column in Churchill’s Golden Road Stakes (G2) in November.

7:25 p.m. EDT – $100,000 San Luis Rey Stakes (G3), Santa Anita, TVG

Richard Mandella’s classy multiple stakes winning United, idle since early November, will square off with Richard Baltas’ sharp recent winner Masteroffoxhounds, as they head a field of five older horses in the San Luis Rey Stakes. A winner of four out of nine Santa Anita turf starts, United has been idle since running a disappointing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last November at Keeneland – a race in which he finished second, beaten a head at Santa Anita in 2019. United enjoyed a terrific year in 2020, winning four out of his six starts, all in graded stakes.

Louisiana Derby preview

From Fair Grounds’ communications team:

Mention Juddmonte Farms’ homebred Mandaloun to trainer Brad Cox and the reaction is telling. And immediate. Cox is looking forward to showing the rest of the racing world what he has thought all along – that Mandaloun is one serious 3-year-old – when he starts as a strong favorite in a sterling renewal of Saturday’s 108th running of the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Run at 1 3/16 miles, the Louisiana Derby will offer 170 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby on a 100-40-20-10 scale and highlights a robust 14-race card that offers eight stakes overall, including the supporting feature, the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) for 3-year-old fillies. The Derby is the last race on the card and anchors an All Stakes Late Pick Five (races 10-14) and All Stakes Late Pick Four (races 11-14) with pools that are both estimated at $750,000.  

Mandaloun (post 6, as Mike Diliberto’s 8-5 morning line favorite, with Florent Geroux to ride), a son of Into Mischief, burst on the national scene as a 2-year-old, easily winning both starts sprinting in Kentucky at short odds. Things didn’t go as swimmingly in his 3-year-old debut, however, as he was third at odds-on in the local Lecomte (G3) in January, finishing behind winter rivals Midnight Bourbon and Proxy. Mandaloun was also making his two-turn and stakes debut in the Lecomte, and after taking a step back to look at the big picture, Cox was not as disappointed as maybe the betting public and Mandaloun’s fan club was. 

“You have to keep in mind it was his first start around two turns and first start in a stakes and he was a little bit wide the entire way,” Cox said. “I think he got a lot out of the race and moved forward off it. From a physical standpoint he looks like he’s continued to develop.” 

Cox also decided to make what would be a key equipment change after the Lecomte, as he put blinkers on for the local Feb. 13 Risen Star (G2). Mandaloun trained brilliantly in the mornings with blinkers and backed Cox’s high praise in the afternoon, when a much more polished colt turned the tables on both Proxy and Midnight Bourbon with an authoritative 1¼-length win, while earning the 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points that went with it. To Cox, the win and marked improvement was due to a combination of things. 

"More than anything, it was just the experience of having the race going two turns under his belt,” Cox said afterwards. “I think the blinkers did help out. Florent immediately made a comment after the race. Much more focused in the post parade, more focused on his job. We didn't put a bunch of cup on him, just like a one-inch cup, but it seems to have done the trick to get him mentally over the top, mentally getting him where he needs to be.”

With the Risen Star behind him, and a berth in the Run of the Roses already assured, Mandaloun heads to the Louisiana Derby in a bit of an interesting position. Cox, who won the race last year with Wells Bayou, does not want to squeeze the lemon dry Saturday, even though there are a million reasons to do so. Mandaloun has continued to flourish in his training, highlighted by a March 6 bullet 59 1/5 drill going five furlongs over the track, which gives his trainer that much more confidence that he can pull off an elusive double that hasn’t accomplished since Grindstone did it in 1996.

“His last two works have been phenomenal; we’ve done as much with him in the morning than we can do,” Cox said. “The goal is to get the job done on Saturday. He’s going to have six weeks to recover, if he runs the way we hope he should, to point to the Kentucky Derby. There will be a period there where he can recover then hopefully, we can start cranking him up towards the end of April for the first Saturday in May.”

Godolphin’s homebred Proxy (post 4 at 7-2 with John Velazquez) was a game second in the Risen Star and will try to emulate Mandaloun’s path to victory, as he will add blinkers for the meet’s signature race. The son of Tapit has been a meet-long work in progress for trainer Mike Stidham, who has continually said the best is yet to come for a colt still on the improve. Proxy, who is 2-for-5 lifetime, broke his maiden and won an optional-claimer earlier in the meet before running second in the Lecomte, but after losing focus and dropping back entering the far turn of the Risen Star, only to rebreak and salvage second, Stidham felt the time was right for a change.

“There were just a number of reasons why the blinkers were added,” Stidham said. “If you look at all of his races here at the Fair Grounds, in every race you can kind of see him doing a little erratic stuff, whether it be shying away, drifting out, or losing focus like he did in the Risen Star. You can’t win Kentucky Derbies or Louisiana Derbies by doing that.” 

Proxy has since worked three times with blinkers, which includes a Feb. 26 bullet 47-flat local four-furlong move. Stidham is confident the equipment change will have an impact, as will the elongated distance of the Louisiana Derby.

“I felt like the works with blinkers, in company, he was definitely a little handier for the rider and more focused,” Stidham said. “We’re finally getting these horses at our game; without a doubt the 1 3/16 miles is a big help. I’m welcoming the added distance and I’m hoping things go well here and then we get even more distance in Kentucky.” 

Winchell Thoroughbreds’ Midnight Bourbon (post 7 at 5-1 with Joe Talamo) will look to rebound after running third in the Risen Star, though he was beaten just 1¾ lengths in what was only slight regression after his strong Lecomte win for trainer Steve Asmussen. The son of Tiznow wired the Lecomte but settled in second in the Risen Star before tiring slightly late while showing plenty of versatility and backing up his biggest career win. Midnight Bourbon is 2-for-6 lifetime and gives Asmussen reason for excitement as he jumps back in to try Mandaloun and Proxy once again.

“I’ve always thought those three were very serious 3-year-olds, not just at the Fair Grounds but they are as good a prospect as you want to be around and I don’t think they’ve done nothing to change anybody’s opinion of that,” Asmussen said. “The addition of blinkers on the one (Mandaloun) and Proxy has been consistent, with the pedigrees they have, all three of them (including Midnight Bourbon) are capable, but at this point of your 3-year-old year, you either get better or you get beat. You’ve got to improve. What you’ve done (so far) is not going to be enough.” 

Tom Durant’s Run Classic (post 3 at 12-1 with Brian Hernandez Jr.) won a two-turn maiden special weight on the Risen Star undercard and will look to emulate history for trainer Bret Calhoun, who pulled the same double in 2019, when By My Standards broke his maiden on Risen Star Day and went on to win the Louisiana Derby. Calhoun knows it is a big ask, but he also knows he has got a son of Runhappy who is loaded with potential. 

“We’ve been high on him for a long time; he’s shown talent, he’s performed up to expectations so far,” Calhoun said. “I know it’s a big step forward, but we wouldn’t be attempting this if we didn’t think he was a pretty smart, good-minded horse” 

Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, and William Strauss’ Hot Rod Charlie (post 5 at 3-1 with Joel Rosario) adds plenty of California class to the equation, as he was second to 2-year-old champion Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November for trainer Doug O’Neill. The son of Oxbow returned at 3 to be third behind the talented Medina Spirit in the Jan. 30 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita and invades for a barn that won Risen Star in 2007 and Fair Grounds Oaks in 2016 and 2017. Hot Rod Charlie is just 1-for-6 lifetime but owns a maiden win, to go with the Juvenile and Lewis runs, in what are his only three starts at two turns on the dirt. O’Neill’s assistant Leandro Mora will be the trainer of record on Saturday. 

Barrett Bernard, Tagg Team Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds’ O Besos (post 8 at 15-1 with Marcelino Pedroza) was fourth in the Risen Star, in what was his two-turn debut. The son of Orb won twice sprinting at the meet for trainer Greg Foley before stretching out in an encouraging effort that he could build on.

Wayne T. Davis’ Rightandjust (post 2 at 20-1 with Colby Hernandez), was sixth after setting the pace in the Risen Star for trainer Shane Wilson, and owner-trainer Dallas Stewart and WinStar Farm’s Starrininmydreams (post 1 at 20-1 with Luis Saez) was ninth, in what was his seasonal debut.