Updated: Louisiana Derby 2020 odds and analysis

With another edition of the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby for 3-year-olds comes one big change. The race now measures 1 3/16 miles, giving most of these 2020 Kentucky Derby hopefuls a true stamina test before heading to Churchill Downs.

The race may come down to two developing colts from a key Feb. 15 race on the Risen Star Stakes (G2) undercard. Shake Some Action and Chestertown overcame slow fractions to finish 1-2 hours before the two divisions of the main event.

Also, the runner-up from the Southwest Stakes (G3), Wells Bayou, brings quality speed in a race not loaded with early foot on paper.

The Louisiana Derby is carded as Race 12, with post time 5:49 p.m. ET. Here’s an early look at the field and morning line odds for the season’s first Derby trail race awarding points on a 100-40-20-10 scale.

1. Major Fed, 8-1 (Ghostzapper – Gregory Foley/Joel Rosario – 3: 1-1-1): To his credit, he did run wide in the second division of the Risen Star Stakes. He only lost to Modernist by one length, and that horse came up through the inside. There were arguments the course favored inside runners all day. On the negative side, the second Risen Star is considered the weaker of the two divisions. Now Major Fed faces a couple of runners from the first division and newcomers as well. The post position is no bargain, either, as he does not own the speed to clear the inside. Use underneath.

2. Mailman Money, 15-1 (Goldencents – Bret Calhoun/Gabriel Saez – 3: 2-0-0): In the second division of the Risen Star, he had a poor first turn and went wide. He came into contention in the stretch run but failed to sustain his bid while fading slightly to fourth. Those who still believe in him can forgive the poor last effort. But he already brought distance questions into the race and now he stretches even farther. While there is talent, he needed to finish stronger in the Risen Star to use him with confidence in this spot. Toss.

3. Wells Bayou, 8-1 (Lookin at Lucky – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 4: 2-1-0): Great job in the Southwest. This one stepped up to stakes company and almost took them all the way after Gold Street failed to secure an upfront position. But Silver Prospector enjoyed a great trip right behind him in the pocket and mowed down Wells Bayou in the stretch. Wells Bayou only lost by a length, though, and still had 5 ½ lengths on Answer In in third. Will he handle the extra distance? As a Lookin at Lucky colt out of a Hard Spun mare, the pedigree is right. Win contender. 

4. Chestertown, 15-1 (Tapit – Steven Asmussen/John Velazquez – 4: 1-2-1): The $2 million New York-bred son of Artemis Agrotera has finally developed to a point where his ability matches some of the hype behind him. After some traffic problems, he finished a nice second to Shake Some Action in a local allowance optional claimer at nine furlongs. Given he lacked room, some argue he ran the best race. The extra ground looks perfect for this grinder, who will use all of the distance to wear down his opponents. Win contender.

5. Social Afleet, 50-1 (Northern Afleet – Dallas Stewart/Adam Beschizza – 7: 2-0-1): On paper, this Louisiana-bred appears overmatched. Winning a state-bred restricted allowance is a nice feat, but he now faces open 3-year-old company in a Derby prep. The trainer, Stewart, has defied the odds more than once before, as his longshot entries always seem to find their way into the bottom part of trifectas and superfectas. Despite the steep class hike, if searching for a big price to toss underneath, it is hard to ignore him. Use underneath.

6. Shake Some Action, 15-1 (Into Mischief – Brad Cox/Colby Hernandez – 3: 2-0-0): The son of Into Mischief has now won two nine-furlong races, one on turf and dirt. Both of the races came locally. Some pedigree handicappers may scoff at his sire in longer routes. But at some point pedigree analysis becomes useless as the horse gains more experience and shows on paper what he can accomplish. In this case, nine furlongs is not a whole lot shorter than 1 3/16 miles. He also overcame a slow pace to win that Feb. 15 race over Chestertown, although his rival had traffic issues.   Win contender.

7. Sharecropper, 20-1 (Pioneerof the Nile – Albert Stall/Miguel Mena – 3: 1-0-0): Last October, he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a gutsy effort over Sounion. But Sounion’s quality is questionable, as he finished fourth and third in his two most recent allowance optional claiming-level tries. Sharecropper himself returned on Feb. 15 and finished fourth by four lengths in the race Shake Some Action and Chestertown ran 1-2. Why not just go with Shake Some Action or Chestertown? Toss.

8. Royal Act, 10-1 (American Pharoah – Peter Eurton/Abel Cedillo – 3: 1-1-0): Royal Act gradually closed for second to Thousand Words in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. But the top four horses finished scrunched together, and that is not typically the sign of a quality race. Thousand Words then returned in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and failed to hit the board after chasing Authentic. While Royal Act does not face the strongest Derby prep field here, he left town for a reason and doesn’t pose much of a threat. Toss.

9. Portos, 8-1 (Tapit – Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 1-1-2): This Tapit colt looks like the kind of horse who will struggle in the Kentucky Derby, if he makes it, but can rebound with a strong effort in the Belmont Stakes. He broke his maiden at Aqueduct by 10 ¾ lengths but got exposed in the Withers Stakes (G3) with his late bid only getting him third, 3 ¾ lengths behind the inexperienced Max Player. New York’s group of 3-year-olds is considered the weakest out of all the regions. In all likelihood, a bottom trifecta spot is his limit in this one’s limit again. Use underneath.

10. Enforceable, 7/2 (Tapit – Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux – 8: 2-2-2): If nothing else, it is hard to fault his consistency. After a closing fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall against some heavy hitters in Silver Prospector and Tiz the Law, he won the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and finished second in the first division of the Risen Star. But he had no real excuse for a runner-up effort in the latter race. Also, his gradual late-closing style will get him into traffic problems at some point. Here, he meets some new faces, which will make the task more difficult. Use underneath.

11. Ny Traffic, 15-1 (Cross Traffic – Saffie Joseph Jr./Luis Saez – 6: 2-0-2): This one finished third in the second division of the Risen Star after contesting the pace and running slightly wide on the turns. He kept fighting in the stretch, although Modernist and Major Red eventually out-kicked him for the first and second spots. As stated above, the second Risen Star division was considered weaker. The extra distance is a question, and he now must deal with Wells Bayou up front. Toss.

12. Lynn’s Map, 30-1 (Liam’s Map – Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 2-0-1): With a fifth-place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes and a sixth-place finish in the weaker division of the Risen Star, it is hard to trust this one. Granted, Lynn’s Map and the rest of the field faced on unfair pace scenario in the Smarty Jones. But Lynn’s Map was closest to Gold Street in second, and he let three other horses pass him at Oaklawn. In the Risen Star, he only put in a modest run for sixth. The talent is not there. Toss.

13. Silver State, 6-1 (Hard Spun – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4: 1-2-1): Disappointing best describes his Risen Star effort. Despite a clean break and a reasonable early position, he failed to out-kick the grinder Enforceable for second. He lost as the 3-1 favorite, which means he burned significant money for two starts in a row after finishing second in the Lecomte at 3-1. For those playing exotics, he figures to make another mild bid for a minor award. Use underneath.

14. Modernist, 6-1 (Uncle Mo – William Mott/Junior Alvarado – 4: 2-0-1): He came up the rail to win the second division of the Risen Star. As explained above, some people argued the card favored inside horses. Also, Modernist won the weaker division of the race, with the favorite Anneau d’Or getting exposed and not even threatening. Another strike is that no incentive exists to tune Modernist up for this race, as 50 qualifying points earned last time is enough to start in the Kentucky Derby. He drew a poor post position, too. For those interested in him to win, wait until Derby Day. But he will make some kind of bid regardless. Use underneath.

AE. Mr. Big News, 20-1 (Giant’s Causeway – Bret Calhoun/Robby Albarado – 5: 1-1-0): He finished fifth in the weaker division of the Risen Star with no real excuse. At least Major Fed, Ny Traffic and Mailman Money all threatened the lead at some point, and Modernist won. This one never posed a serious win threat despite a mild kick toward the end. Bettors are better off using one of those four other contenders if Mr. Big News draws into the field. Toss.

AE. Farmington Road, 12-1 (Quality Road – Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano – 4: 1-1-0): Pletcher’s other entry made a nice bid in the first division of the Risen Star to finish fourth, only 4 ½ lengths behind the winner Mr. Monomoy. It was a nice step forward off his easy romp at Tampa Bay Downs against weaker competition. If this one manages to make the field, he deserves some kind of spot in exotics tickets. Use underneath.

Conclusion: Handicapping a race a week out is unconventional. But early on, Chestertown, Shake Some Action and Wells Bayou certainly look like the best options at a longer distance.

Chestertown and Shake Some Action closed into a slow pace, which makes the pedestrian final time from their last meeting forgivable. Both of them own plenty of stamina.

Wells Bayou’s willingness to stay on is more questionable, but this field lacks any crazy speed types. He also faced one of the top horses in Silver Prospector over in the Southwest Stakes and arguably competes against weaker in this spot.

In horizontal tickets at least, those three horses deserve a spot.