Louisiana Derby 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

Major Kentucky Derby 2019 preps begin next Saturday, when Fair Grounds hosts the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby offering qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 basis to its first four finishers.

War of Will is squarely the horse to beat, as he has already taken the local Lecomte Stakes (G2) in January and Risen Star Stakes (G2) in February. He’ll bid for the first sweep of Fair Grounds’ preps since International Star as a big favorite.

Beyond War of Will? It’s an evenly matched group of 10 other contenders, and you can make a case for most of them to place.

With the draw completed early for the 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby, here’s a look at the field with the official morning line:

1. Roiland, 12-1 (Successful Appeal — Tom Amoss — 6: 2-1-1 — $119,660): Roiland doesn’t offer the speed figures to suggest he can upset here, but those are only a measure of how fast he has run, not how fast he could run. Amoss has always been high on this colt, expecting a coming out party at some point. Perhaps it’s in the Louisiana Derby, a race in which the trainer’s had plenty of success collecting points for that trip to Churchill Downs. Roiland may spot the entire field but fits with the large group of closing types that will depend on both pace and trip. User underneath.

2. Lemniscate, 15-1 (Exchange Rate — Kenny McPeek — 3: 1-1-0 — $41,450): When a dirt allowance didn’t go recently at Gulfstream Park, McPeek entered this one instead in a turf route, which Lemniscate — geometry whizzes know that term as figure-eight-shaped curves — won by a length. More distance should be to his liking, but the colt didn’t go particularly fast in any of his previous efforts. Facing a deep field here, this is a tough ask for him. Toss.

3. Limonite, 20-1 (Lemon Drop Kid — Steve Asmussen — 5: 1-1-2 — $92,300): He ran into some traffic coming into the stretch to be fifth in the Risen Star, but part of succeeding is creating your own luck. Limonite typically gets away slowly from the gate and relies on a pace setup for his late run. Even under the best of circumstances, he’d need to navigate through plenty of horses while the top picks here are positioned far ahead. One other factor: He hasn’t run particularly fast yet, either. Toss.

4. Sueno, 8-1 (Atreides — Keith Desormeaux — 5: 2-2-1 — $190,440): Well-traveled, with five starts at four tracks, this modestly bred colt fits the mold of a Desormeaux-trained overachiever on the trail. After overtaken by closing Gunmetal Gray in the Sham (G3) to open the year, Sueno just missed in the Southwest (G3) after Super Steed took advantage of a short stretch at Oaklawn Park. He worked at the San Luis Rey training center given the recent interruptions at Santa Anita Park, so fitness shouldn’t be a concern. Win contender.

5. By My Standards, 12-1 (Goldencents — Bret Calhoun — 4: 1-2-1 — $53,710): Calhoun saddled this colt for a 4 1/4-length breakthrough maiden victory going 1 1/16 miles on the Risen Star undercard. He always had high regard but waited for By My Standards to come around mentally. Now follows the class question. Could he be a Harvey Wallbanger type? The Holy Bull (G2) upsetter took a while to win his first race, too, and as with By My Standards shows some nice horses in his past performances. Use underneath.

6. War of Will, 6-5 (War Front — Mark Casse — 7: 3-1-1 — $491,569): Casse said exiting the Risen Star that this colt seems to be thriving on the grind of the Derby trail, and he’ll get another chance to prove it as a big favorite here. War of Will, 3-for-3 since switching to the dirt, shows the type of tactical speed that makes him a threat from any post position and given just about any trip. Reports from Casse’s Fair Grounds-based assistant, David Carroll, are that this is a “happy and healthy” horse. The top choice.

7. Mr. Money, 20-1 (Goldencents — Bret Calhoun — 5: 1-2-0 — $154,400): Same sire, owner and trainer of By My Standards. What about a potentially better talent? It’s plenty possible given Mr. Money’s run to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile off a maiden victory. He took a long layoff into a seventh in the Risen Star and has every reason to run better in his second race off the shelf. Whether he’s a true win contender or in for some minor awards remains to be seen, but he should get the chance from a nice stalking position. Use underneath.

8. Country House, 9-2 (Lookin At Lucky — Bill Mott — 4: 1-2-0 — $120,175): The thought here is, no matter how many times they circled the Fair Grounds oval, this one wasn’t going to catch War of Will in the Risen Star. While Country House remains lightly raced, he also reached the point in a form cycle when he could have reasonably neared or reached a peak. The closing type remains a threat, but in this writer’s opinion, not to win the Louisiana Derby. Board hitter.

9. Bankit, 20-1 (Central Banker — Steve Asmussen — 8: 2-3-0 — $345,625): Here’s the field’s X-factor. Bankit looked like a legitimate Derby contender coming into the new year after a close second to stablemate Long Range Toddy in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. But he missed the board in two prep starts at Oaklawn. Either he didn’t like the surface, he hasn’t progressed, or the New York-bred doesn’t have the class to contend in graded stakes. That’s a lot of question marks. Bet at your own risk. Toss.

10. Spinoff, 8-1 (Hard Spun — Todd Pletcher — 3: 2-0-1 — $60,000): Surprisingly empty so far on the Derby trail, Pletcher sent this colt out for an 11 3/4-length victory last time in a Tampa Bay Downs allowance. Going back to his 2-year-old season, Spinoff is also graded stakes-placed. He appeared to be looking for some competition before John Velazquez urged him forward Feb. 22, and from there he absolutely took over. Spinoff’s speed figures reflected a solid effort, and Pletcher enters looking for a second straight Louisiana Derby score following Noble Indy’s win last year. Win contender.

11. Hog Creek Hustle, 12-1 (Overanalyze — Vickie Foley — 6: 2-1-1 — $137,300): Going nine furlongs with this long stretch could be where pedigree catches up to a consistent, hard-trying runner. Second in the Lecomte and fourth in the Risen Star, he’s certainly a fit to compete here, but as for contending, he looks like another who could use a pace setup that just might not be there Saturday. Use underneath.