Los Alamitos Futurity fair odds: See how to bet against Baffert

Bob Baffert's success in California's premier 2-year-old race following the Breeders' Cup needs no introduction.

The Racing Hall of Fame trainer has won the Futurity – be it at Hollywood Park or its current home Los Alamitos – 13 times, including the first seven editions at Los Alamitos from 2014 through 2020. He also won with future classic winners Real Quiet, Point Given and Lookin At Lucky in the Hollywood era.

But he's not completely invincible in the race. In fact, last year's loss came at the hands of trainer Tim Yakteen, a somewhat-ironic twist given that Yakteen has trained former Baffert pupils in the Kentucky Derby in each of the past two years.

Yakteen is in a similar spot here with no. 1 Moonlit Sonata, who shocked Del Mar bettors when winning on debut at 33-1. Granted, the price that day perhaps speaks to a lack of confidence before the race, but it's tough to discount what we saw on the track. I'm a big fan of debut runners who are able to close like that, and given his pedigree, the stretch out to a two-turn 1 1/16-mile trip should not be an issue.

No. 5 Coach Prime is the Baffert trainee most likely to win, but he's also the most likely to be overbet given the connections, name, and last-out win. And sure, he can win this, but at 2-1 I'll side against. Same with one of the other Bafferts, no. 6 Wine Me Up, who has faced the best class of horses among this group but has by no means sparkled while doing so, and I prefer the allure of the unknown with Moonlit Sonata over Wine Me Up.

Given this is a six-horse field and the Bafferts make sense without offering a lot of opportunity to make dollars, I see this as a win bet opportunity on Moonlit Sonata at his fair odds or better.