Lintner: Thunder Snow tops my Breeders' Cup Classic ballot
The run up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic will this year be complemented by a weekly set of rankings with 36 media members, horseplayers and representatives of the Breeders’ Cup Racing Directors/Secretaries Panel voting.
As part of that group, I plan to regularly share my Top 10, comparing it to the consensus as we near the Nov. 2 race at Santa Anita Park.
My first ballot listed horses that could, first of all, logically make it in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in top form and who have excelled at 1 1/4 miles. Certainly a few changes will be in order by this time next week with Churchill Downs hosting the Stephen Foster (G2) -- a "Win and You're In" toward the Classic -- on Saturday.
Here’s a glance at my initial Top 10:
1. Thunder Snow — He finished third in last year’s Classic, and that was without the benefit of a lengthy campaign on U.S. dirt. They know how to get him right on the big day.
2. Vino Rosso — No longer a punchline, he defeated Gift Box last time in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1), earning a victory at 10 furlongs and at the site of the Breeders’ Cup.
3. Gift Box — I tend to respect when John Sadler’s confident about one of his runners, which seems to be the case every time this relative newcomer to his barn heads postward.
4. McKinzie — He’s No. 1 in the consensus poll but only fourth here because I consider him better at distances shorter than 1 1/4 miles, at least until he proves otherwise. Still eligible to improve at his age.
5. Catholic Boy — He looked to be coming into his own for last year’s Classic but lost all shot leaving the gate. This division looks like a better year-end fit than the 12-furlong Breeders’ Cup Turf.
6. Maximum Security — I still wonder what happens when he’s pressured on the pace through the middle portion of a race. Maybe Maximum Security's the type so good he makes his own luck.
7. Tacitus — Tactical runners seem to thrive in the Classic, but Tacitus will always be driving at the end and is a lightly enough raced 3-year-old to still be delivering that same kick in November.
8. Catalina Cruiser — He might still be a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile type, but Sadler separating him from Gift Box is evidence the Cruiser will get his shot at stretching out off a win in the seven-furlong True North (G2).
9. Tenfold — We’ll learn more in the Stephen Foster, but the Pimlico Special (G3) victory at 1 10 furlongs may have represented a breakthrough. It’s also fair to question the overall class of that race.
10. Gunnevera — He’s back on the work tab and coming back healthier out of this year’s Dubai World Cup (G1) run. Eventually Gunnevera has to win in a big spot, right?
Catalina Cruiser and Tenfold were listed in my Top 10 but didn’t crack the consensus list. Meanwhile, the 3-year-olds Omaha Beach and War of Will were liked more by the group. The other sophomore I’ll have my eye on the second half of the season is Game Winner, who has the Travers Stakes (G1) as a summer goal.
Consensus Top 10 | Lintner's Top 10 |
1. McKinzie | 1. Thunder Snow |
2. Thunder Snow | 2. Vino Rosso |
3. Gift Box | 3. Gift Box |
4. Maximum Security | 4. McKinzie |
5. Catholic Boy | 5. Catholic Boy |
6. Vino Rosso | 6. Maximum Security |
7. Omaha Beach | 7. Tacitus |
8. War of Will | 8. Catalina Cruiser |
9. Tacitus | 9. Tenfold |
10. Gunnevera | 10. Gunnevera |