Likely Exchange fair odds: Most likely winner is most likely value

Of course value is important no matter what the selection and wager, but zeroing in on the fine line between a play at 8-5 and a pass at 3-2 is a lot more difficult than knowing with near certainty that you're going to get your price on a fair-value 9-1.

I bring this up because the $125,000 Likely Exchange Stakes on Saturday at Turfway Park offers a potential pitfall in the form of no. 8 Flashy Gem. At her 5-2 morning-line price, she is an obvious play but she figures to go lower than that based on connections, with Axel Concepcion up for Brad Cox, and 2-for-3 record at Turfway. Her lone loss came in a second-place finish in a $300,000 stakes last year.

The race figures to have a lot of pace with a pair of E, or early, types based on the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances. Each of those E runners have 8 Quirin Speed Points to boot, meaning they not only are want-the-lead types but also have the speed to do it. Quirin Speed is on a 0-8 scale with 8 being the fastest early. Plus there is another E/P, or early/presser, run style with 8 Quirin points. 

All that is to say that if the field stays intact, there will be action on the front end. That suits Flashy Gem just fine, as she shown an ability to keep up with quicker paces while still having punch for mid-race and closing moves.

She is not invincible by any means. My 8-5 fair odds means I think she loses 61.5 percent of the time. But she is definitely the most likely winner, and I would not disagree with anyone who singled her here.

I have a little interest in no. 7 Thisnameisokay, who tried to go gate-to-wire in the My Charmer last month here. She does not have to have the lead, though, and against this group would prefer to see a stalk-and-pounce attempt. That would leave her getting the jump on our top pick, and holding that one off might be a tall order, but the price should be right to play her to hold on for a piece.

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