Lexington guide: Odds, analysis, PPs for Kentucky Derby prep
The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 reaches its end Saturday with the running of the Grade 3, $400,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The 1 1/16-mile event for 3-year-olds drew a field of 10, although long shot Everdoit was expected to be scratched after racing Wednesday.
Some entrants like Hades are using this race to try and sneak into the 150th Kentucky Derby. Others likely are using the Lexington as a springboard to the Preakness or other events later in the year.
The Lexington will go as the 10th of 11 races at 5:48 p.m. EDT. The race may be seen live on FanDuel TV.
Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for downloadable PPs for the Lexington Stakes and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Lexington Stakes as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
Lexington Stakes best speed figures
| Post | Horse | ML | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Secret Chat | 15-1 | 77 | 100 | 88 |
| 2 | The Wine Steward | 5-2 | 87 | 113 | 92 |
| 3 | Dilger | 12-1 | 85 | 103 | 92 |
| 4 | Footprint | 10-1 | 81 | 107 | 92 |
| 5 | Hades | 7-2 | 90 | 105 | 97 |
| 6 | How's Ur Attitude | 30-1 | 90 | 110 | 103 |
| 7 | Everdoit | 30-1 | 74 | 99 | 88 |
| 8 | Encino | 5-1 | 89 | 113 | 94 |
| 9 | Liberal Arts | 4-1 | 88 | 109 | 93 |
| 10 | Lucky Jeremy | 8-1 | 84 | 112 | 93 |
Looking at the pace
The pace projector is not calling for a fast tempo, and Lucky Jeremy is expected to forge a clear lead. Long shot How's Ur Attitude should be in the second flight along with Hades and Secret Chat.
Pace projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks for the Lexington Stakes
This week's Super Screener covers all stakes races taking place at Keeneland as well as Oaklawn. The Grade 3 Count Fleet has caught Super Screener creator Mike Shutty's eye in particular, with likely favorite Skelly projected to face early pace pressure.
"Super Screener landed on Happy Is a Choice projecting to sit an ideal off-the-pace trip," Shutty said about the 20-1 long shot. "He missed all of 2023, but the 2024 debut indicated a move forward, and while this is a step forward class wise, form-cycle analysis anticipates another move forward and potential winner at a big price."
Get the early edition of the Kentucky Derby Super Screener now for just $57.
Ed DeRosa's Lexington Stakes fair odds see Encino as the value of the race as he sides against favored The Wine Steward in his 2024 bow.
DeRosa also has Apple Blossom fair odds, and he's trying to get creative despite conceding Adare Manor will be tough to beat. Find out why he believes Taxed and Shotgun Hottie could go off as underlays.
The Wine Steward is on J. Keeler Johnson's watch list for this weekend along with a pair of turf stakes runners at Keeneland.
Trainer Joe Orseno joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to discuss the chances of Hades in the Lexington Stakes as he attempts to get back into the Triple Crown picture.
Here's the field for the Lexington Stakes (G3):