Kentucky Derby prep: Lexington Stakes odds and analysis

The Grade 3, $400,000 Lexington, which will be run Saturday, is the final official prep race on the road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/16-mile race drew a field of 11 3-year-olds who will compete for the 20-8-6-4-2 points that go to the top five eligible finishers.

The Lexington provides the final opportunity for horses to get into the Kentucky Derby, which will be run three weeks from Saturday. A record high amount of points might be required to qualify for the run for the roses this year. For a complete analysis of what it will take to get into the field, see this Kentucky Derby scenarios report from earlier this week.

Related: Disarm seeks Kentucky Derby berth via Lexington Stakes

Here is a full-field analysis for the Lexington, which is scheduled as race 8 of 11 with post time set for 5:16 p.m. EDT. Each horse is shown with morning-line odds from the HRN staff, his sire, trainer, jockey, record, purse earnings and Derby qualifying points.

1. Baseline Beater (20-1, Flatter, Neil Pessin, Corey Lanerie, 6: 1-1-0, $74,338, 0 Derby points) Baseline Beater broke his maiden in his sixth start at Fair Grounds going two turns when he rallied from last in an 11 horse field to win by more than three lengths. In the Louisiana Derby (G2) he once again broke slowly but could not make up the ground. Toss.

2. Reinvest (15-1, Quality Road, Tim Hamm, Joe Talamo, 2: 2-0-0, $33,0300, 0 Derby points) Reinvest won both of his starts at Tampa Bay Downs, including a maiden victory in February as the favorite. He then stretched out to a two-turn allowance where he once again was well bet and rallied to win in a five-horse field. Live long shot.

3. Demolition Duke (6-1, Good Magic, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 2: 1-1-0, $40,200, 0 Derby points) Demolition Duke broke his maiden at first asking for Brad Cox in a February in a six-furlong sprint. He then was second by a neck in an allowance at Fair Grounds going a mile and 70 yards. Use underneath.

4. Transect (20-1, Gun Runner, Paulo Lobo, Gerardo Corrales, 3: 2-0-0, $87,525, 0 Derby points) Transect won his first two starts at Turfway Park on the Tapeta surface as the favorite both times in sprints. He then shipped north to try the Derby trail in the Gotham (G2) and finished 10th in a field of 14. Toss.

5. First Mission (7-2, Street Sense, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 2: 1-1-0, $44,000, 0 Derby points) First Mission is a late-developing Godolphin home-bred who will be making his third career start. He debuted at Fair Grounds in February when he ran second beaten by less than a length behind a Brad Cox stablemate who came back to win his next start in an allowance. First Mission stretched out to two turns and bested a field of 10 by almost seven lengths after stalking the early pace. Use underneath.

6. Disarm (3-1, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz, 4: 1-2-1, $290,350, 40 Derby points) Disarm lived up to his promising maiden victory at Saratoga when his finished second in the Louisiana Derby (G2), where he improved from sixth to finish second well clear of the rest of the field. Any points earned in the Lexington will bolster his chance to run in the Kentucky Derby. Top choice.

7. Denington (20-1, Gun Runner, Ken McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 9: 2-1-1, $168,695, 8 Derby points) Denington began his career in August at Ellis Park and broke his maiden in his fourth start, which was at Churchill Downs going long on a sloppy track. He then ran in four Derby prep races picking up points in three of them. In the Louisiana Derby he was never in contention and finished 10th. Toss.

8. Empirestrikesfast (9-2, Empire Maker, Bill Mott, Frankie Dettori, 1: 1-0-0, $42,000, 0 Derby points) Empirestrikesfast won his only start, which came last month at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/16 miles. He pressed the pace in the early going, got in a head-to-head battle around the turn and into the stretch and then pulled away to win by less than a length at 23-1. Use underneath.

9. Prairie Hawk (20-1, Curlin, Saffie Joseph Jr., John Velazquez, 5: 2-0-0, $48,200, 0 Derby points) Prairie Hawk was a supplemental entry in the Lexington after an improved effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), where he finished fourth one place ahead of his stablemate Lord Miles, upset winner of the Wood Memorial (G2). Trainer Joseph is looking to pull another upset as Prairie Hawk will follow a similar pattern as Lord Miles. Live long shot.

10. Curly Larry and Mo (20-1, Mo Town, Caio Caramori, F. Arrieta, 6: 1-1-0, $66,785, 0 Derby points) Curly Larry and Mo will make his first start in a Derby points race. The New York-bred will move from turf to dirt after making his last four starts on the grass, including his only start of 2023 in a Gulfstream Park allowance where he set the pace and faded badly down the stretch to finish fifth. He did make his first two starts on the dirt at Saratoga against state-breds. His only win was on the grass at Keeneland in October. Toss.

11. Arabian Lion (5-1, Justify, Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 4: 1-1-0, $82,600, 0 Derby points) Arabian Lion stayed with Bob Baffert after he did not live up to expectations in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in California. Irad Ortiz gets back on board. Use underneath.

Summary: Disarm is the only horse in the Lexington field who can help his chances to run in the Kentucky Derby. After finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, he earned 40 qualifying points. A top three finish in the Lexington will give Disarm enough points to lock up a spot in the Derby. The son of Gun Runner lived up to the promise that he showed when he broke his maiden at Saratoga.

Arabian Lion, Prairie Hawk, Empirestrikesfast, First Mission and Reinvest are worth considering in the exotics with Disarm who is the top choice to win the Lexington.