Lexington Stakes 2022: Odds, analysis for final Derby prep
As the final stop on the 2022 Kentucky Derby trail, the $400,000 Lexington Stakes is the last chance for Derby hopefuls to help their chances to get in the field on the first Saturday in May. The 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 offers the top four finishers points (20-8-4-2) and graded-stakes earnings.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Lexington with attention paid to the Derby field implications. The morning-line odds are provided by Horse Racing Nation staff. The Lexington is carded as 9 of 11 with post time scheduled for 5:16 p.m. EDT.
1. Midnight Chrome (20-1 – California Chrome – John Servis / Tyler Gaffalione – 6: 1-0-3 - $78,520 – 2 Derby points) Midnight Chrome earned his 2 Derby points when he finished third in the Remsen (G2) in December at Aqueduct. That result was further flattered when Mo Donegal won the Wood Memorial (G2) and Zandon was first in the Blue Grass (G1), making both of them major contenders to win on the first Saturday in May. Midnight Chrome was third in his only race of this year, a turf allowance at Gulfstream Park. His one win was on the grass, but his Remsen performance was promising. Live long shot.
2. In Due Time (5-2 – Not This Time – Kelly Breen / Paco Lopez – 4: 2-1-1 - $150,180 – 20 Derby points) In Due Time was a buzz horse in Florida early this year after an impressive allowance victory, which sent him to the Fountain of Youth at odds of 6-1. In a controversial incident, his rider, Paco Lopez, caused two horses to go down after he forced his way into a tight spot on the final turn. In Due Time came out of it unscathed and finished second, picking up his 20 Derby points. A win in the Lexington would give him 40 points and enough graded-stakes earnings to make to the field. The one to beat.
3. We All See It (20-1 – Street Sense – Eddie Kenneally / Luis Saez – 7: 2-1-2 - $71,404 – 0 Derby points) We All See It broke his maiden in his third try in November at Indiana Grand by 11 lengths. It then took him four tries to get an allowance victory, which he did by a head at Fair Grounds last month after winning a duel down the stretch. Toss.
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4. Ethereal Road (8-1 – Quality Road – D. Wayne Lukas / Victor Espinoza – 6: 1-1-1 - $276,045 – 20 Derby points) On the Kentucky Derby trail, a horse’s status can change rapidly. Ethereal Road needed four starts to break his maiden but did it impressively at Oaklawn Park. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas sent him to the Rebel (G2), where he had the lead in the stretch but was passed by long shot Un Ojo and finished second. Lukas then sent him to Keeneland, but he was a disappointing seventh in the Blue Grass (G2). He will come back a week later with one more chance to pick up Derby points. Hard to know what to expect. Win contender.
5. Howling Time (15-1 – Not This Time – Dale Romans / Joe Talamo – 4: 2-0-0 - $206,015 – 0 Derby points) Howling Time won his first two races at Churchill Downs as a juvenile in a September maiden special weight and then the Street Sense Stakes. In the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), he set the pace and faded to fifth. In his only start of 2022, Howling Time was never in contention when he finished a distant ninth in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He will need to rediscover the form that he had to begin his career. Toss.
6. Skate to Heaven (20-1 – Laoban – Robertino Diodoro / David Cohen – 4: 1-1-0 - $71,180 – 0 Derby points) Skate to Heaven broke his maiden last month in his fourth try at Oaklawn Park. He won that race by a nose going a mile. In January, he was sixth behind Ethereal Road, who was also a late addition to the field. Toss.
7. Major General (12-1 – Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: 2-0-0 - $232,525 – 10 Derby points) Major General was one of many well-liked Derby contenders who disappointed in their 2022 debut. He won both of his starts as a 2-year-old, including the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs. But in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), he broke slowly and finished last. That left him with 10 points from last year and a chance to end up with 30 if he bounces back to win the Lexington. Still, Major General would need defections from the Kentucky Derby field. Win contender.
8. Strava (15-1 – Into Mischief – Dallas Stewart / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 1-1-1 - $67,050 – 0 Derby points) Strava is unlikely to end up in the Derby field. With a victory in the Lexington, he still would need several horses to drop out of the field for the Run for the Roses. Strava won as a 2-year-old at first asking at Keeneland in October for Dallas Stewart. This year he hit the board twice in allowance races at Fair Grounds, with a third in February behind the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Cyberknife. On that day, he broke through the gate but still ran well. Use underneath.
9. Tawny Port (7-2 – Pioneerof the Nile – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 4: 2-1-0 - $160,400 – 40 Derby points) The connections of Tawny Port decided to take charge of their chances to get in the Kentucky Derby field after running second in the Jeff Ruby (G3), where he earned 40 points to land in the 20th spot for now. But there are several horses in this field who have a chance to move ahead of Tawny Port if he did not run. Now, a top four finish would put him safely in the Derby field. He won his first two starts for Brad Cox at Turfway Park on Tapeta. His lone start on a dirt track was a fifth-place finish in Risen Star (G2), thus it is hard to know how he will do at Keeneland. Win contender.
10. Dash Attack (10-1 – Munnings – Ken McPeek / David Cohen – 4: 2-0-0 - $231,274 – 10 Derby points) Dash Attack won his first two career starts for Kenny McPeek, including the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park where he got his 10 Derby points. Continuing on the Derby trail in Arkansas, Dash Attack was unable to hit the top four in the Southwest (G3) or the Rebel, and both of those races have not turned out to be significant Derby prep races. Like others in this field, he would need help to get in the Derby gate even with a win in the Lexington. His two wins came with late runs after breaking a bit slowly. Dash Attack will need to return to his best form to contend for the win in the Lexington. Toss.
11. Call Me Midnight (9-2 – Midnight Lute – Keith Desormeaux / James Graham – 8: 2-1-0 - $231,806 – 10 Derby points) Call Me Midnight would need a victory in the Lexington and then several defections from the field to have a chance to get in the Derby field. He has been unable to win two races after showing promise on the Derby trail. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last year and then was seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He bounced back with a long-shot victory in the Lecomte (G3) over current Derby favorite Epicenter. Call Me Midnight disappointed in the Louisiana Derby (G2) when he broke last and finished sixth. Based on his in-and-out recent performances, he might be ready to fire his best shot again. Win contender.
Summary: In Due Time is the likely favorite and the one to beat in the Lexington. But the field of 11 has a few horses who are win contenders if they can run back to their best form in previous efforts on the Kentucky Derby trail – Call Me Midnight, Major General and Ethereal Road. Then there is Tawny Port, who is in good form right now, but his three top efforts were on the Tapeta at Turfway Park.
The Lexington sure feels like a race where a long shot will be the winner, so my pick will be Midnight Chrome. His recent turf start was an opportunity for veteran trainer John Servis to get him a prep race. If he can improve on his Remsen finish, he could be dangerous.