Lexington fair odds: 3 reasons Encino is the man

There's every reason to believe that The Wine Steward will be the favorite to win the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland, and there is every reason to bet against him at his 5-2 morning line price.

Sure, he's looked awesome in all four lifetime starts, including stakes wins sprinting before stretching out to finish second to Locked in the Breeders' Futurity at this track and distance (G1). But coming off a more than six-month layoff to return against proven graded-stakes foes going 1 1/16 miles is a tall order.

He can win, but he'll have to do it without my money. 

I see nothing wrong with Encino in his dirt debut. His sire Nyquist won at this track and distance when clinching a 2-year-old championship in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and I love that Encino has won both from gate to wire and from off the pace. And the horse he beat in the Battaglia, Epic Ride, ran great when third behind Sierra Leone and Just a Touch in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in his dirt debut.

Liberal Arts is dangerous from off the pace, but his trip in the Arkansas Derby (G1), when somehow only 7.8-1, has been talked about a lot. I fear he might be an underlay here along with The Wine Steward.

Lucky Jeremy is the wildcard. I thought he ran fine when setting the pace in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) won by Endlessly. Similarly, he did not embarrass himself in New Mexico when winning the Riley Allison Futurity before finishing third behind next out to Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Stronghold in the Sunland Park Derby (G3). He is a gate-to-wire threat and worth a look at his morning-line price.

Wagering-wise, I am not sure of my exact plan but expect it will feature leaning on either Encino or Lucky Jeremy, depending on which one offers more value against my fair-odds line. In the multi-race wagers, I'll fold in Liberal Arts as well because The Wine Steward definitely will be overused in those pools.