Lewis fair odds: Which Baffert colt is the best play?
Bob Baffert not only trains the top three choices in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park but also the top three Triple Crown hopefuls of the 19 3-year-olds entered in this weekend's Kentucky Derby points races.
Based on fair odds, I give the hall of fame conditioner a 98% chance of saddling the Lewis winner. Last year's champion 2-year-old male and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull is the morning-line favorite, but I would not be surprised to see Rodriguez as the public choice off his maiden win at this track and distance, one mile, 27 days ago.
Citizen Bull won the Juvenile in early November at Del Mar in gate-to-wire fashion and returns here 10 weeks later against his uncoupled stablemate, who might even have more speed. In a bigger field with other speed I'd say that might compromise Rodriguez, but I think it's even money that he wins this race from go to whoa.
Madaket Road is the third of three Bafferts in here and should not be dismissed. Unfortunately with the five-horse field I'm not sure we'll get the 7-1 fair-odds price, but he is worth watching in both the win and exacta odds. Also, fans of his should not be discouraged by what happens here. He would be favored in either of the other Derby preps.
The other two horses are hopelessly overmatched here and would shock me to the core with a win.