Leonatus fair odds: Pace edge gives Epic Ride chance to wire

There was likely nobody happier than the connections of Epic Ride when trainer Brad Cox said Awesome Road would start in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn instead of the Leonatus Stakes on Friday at Turfway Park.

Awesome Road's defection increases the chances that Welch Racing's Epic Ride can win the one-mile stakes for 3-year-olds wire to wire, the same tactics jockey Adam Beschizza employed on the John Ennis trainee when breaking the Blame colt's maiden going six furlongs on Jan. 5 at Turfway.

That is a key date for Epic Ride, as he was not slated to contest this stakes when originally scheduled for Jan. 20. But Turfway abandoned racing that day because of cold, and Ennis was able to include the rescheduled Leonatus in his plans.

No. 7 Salvattore Prince is the other likely frontrunner. Both of his wins have come on the Tapeta surface at Gulfstream Park, pressing the pace both times in two-turn races. His Brisnet Pace Ratings indicate an ability to run with Epic Ride early, but given Epic Ride won gate-to-wire sprinting and Salvattore Prince pressed routing, I expect Epic Ride to just go for it here.

If those two go at it, though, then I have no. 6 Vote No as the most likely beneficiary. His lone try at two turns was a good one, coming up just a length short in the Bourbon Stakes (G2) on turf last year at Keeneland. His 3-year-old debut was a resounding five-length win in the Turfway Prevue Stakes as the 3-2 favorite with a style of race he could get again here. 

No. 4 Mugato is a little interesting off a lifetime top when returning to synthetic, the surface of his lone win.

From a multi-race standpoint, I'll just plant my flag with Epic Ride. He is not the morning line favorite but is my most likely winner. I could see some opportunity in keying Mugatu with the logicals as well.

Coverage of Turfway Park's Leonatus Stakes at Horse Racing Nation is sponsored by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.