Kentucky Derby prep: Lecomte Stakes odds and analysis
Saturday’s Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte is the second of four stops on the Fair Grounds road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby and 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers.
Recent winners of the Lecomte include the $1.8 million earner and 2019 Preakness victor War of Will. In 2013 Oxbow went on to win the Preakness and run second in the Belmont Stakes and picked up $1.2 million in earnings. Ron the Greek got the 2010 Lecomte victory and became a four-time Grade and Group 1 winner. In 2009 Friesan Fire swept the three Derby prep races at the Fair Grounds, and in 2007 Hard Spun finished in the top four in all three legs of the Triple Crown with a second in the run for the roses.
Here is an analysis for the Lecomte with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Lecomte is scheduled as the final race on a 13-race card with post time set for 7 p.m. EST.
1. Next Level, 20-1. Vino Rosso – Keith Desormeaux / David Cohen – 6: 1-1-1 - $87,100. Next Level broke his maiden in his fifth career start, which was at Fair Grounds. He began racing in a stakes at Santa Anita in June, was third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and seventh in the American Pharoah (G1) all before his initial victory. Last seen he was seventh in the Gun Runner as a long shot. Blinkers come off. Trainer Keith Desormeaux won the Lecomte in 2022 with long shot Call Me Midnight. Scratch.
2. Nash, 5-2. Medaglia d’Oro – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 3: 1-1-1 - $97,500. Nash was second in his debut in a Keeneland maiden race and then beat a field of nine at Churchill Downs on the front end by more than 10 lengths. The Godolphin home-bred moved on to the Derby trail in the Gun Runner, where he was the odds-on favorite and finished third picking up 3 Derby points after breaking slowly. Cox won this race last year with Instant Coffee. Top choice.
3. Tizzy Indy, 20-1. Take Charge Indy – Keith Desormeaux / James Graham – 6: 1-1-1 - $49,750. Tizzy Lindy needed four races to break his maiden and then did it in a $20,000 claimer at Churchill. The Calumet Farm home-bred then was second in a starter allowance and third in a turf allowance. This will be his first start in a stakes race. Toss.
4. Can Group, 6-1. Good Samaritan – Mark Casse / Jareth Loveberry – 5: 2-0-2 - $357,013. Can Group began his career on the dirt at Ellis Park in the summer with a pair of third-place finishes. Trainer Mark Casse then moved the son of Good Samaritan to the turf, where he broke his maiden and won the Bourbon (G2) with a last-to-first run. Can Group was last seen running late to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Casse won the Lecomte twice in 2019 and 2020 with War of Will and Enforceable. Use underneath.
5. Ethan Energy, 4-1. Uncle Mo – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 2: 1-0-0 - $34,250. Ethan Energy is the second Brad Cox runner, and he broke his maiden in his second start with a more than five-length victory at Fair Grounds going the Lecomte distance. The Stonestreet Stables home-bred has the breeding to be a good one as a half-sister to graded-stakes winner Royal Charlotte. Win contender.
6. Lat Long, 10-1. Liam’s Map – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 5: 1-1-3 - $123,750. Lat Long raced five times and hit the board in all of them. He had three thirds and a second before breaking his maiden at Oaklawn last month against a horse who came back to win his next start. In his early races he finished behind Dornoch and Track Phantom, and they both went on to win a Derby points race. Live long shot.
7. Track Phantom, 9-5. Quality Road – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 4: 2-1-1 - $165,000. Track Phantom has 10 Derby points from his front-end victory in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds a month ago. In all four starts his speed figures increased, in two races at a mile and then a pair at 1 1/16 miles where he broke his maiden and then moved to the Kentucky Derby trail. Asmussen is a three-time winner of this race, most recently in 2021 with Midnight Bourbon. The one to beat.
8. Awesome Road, 10-1. Quality Road – Brad Cox / Axel Concepcion– 3: 1-0-0 - $59,808. Awesome Road showed a lot of promise when he won his debut at Ellis Park in August by almost three lengths with a fast speed figure as an even-money favorite. Cox stretched him out to two turns on the Derby trail, where he finished seventh in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Scratch.
Summary: In this field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls, only Can Group and Track Phantom have a stakes victory. Nash will have to turn the tables on Track Phantom after their first meeting in the Gun Runner. Ethan Energy is short on experience with only two starts but impressed in his maiden victory.
Track Phantom and Nash are the morning-line favorites, and Can Group and Ethan Energy offer better odds. In the Lecomte exacta, I will use top choice Nash with Track Phantom, Can Group and Ethan Energy.
HRN odds by Brian Zipse.