Kentucky Derby prep: Lecomte 2023 odds and analysis
Saturday’s $200,000, Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes is the second of four official points races at Fair Grounds on the road to the Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/16-mile race drew a field of eight 3-year-olds who will compete for the increased level of points that now stands at 20-8-6-4-2 for the top five finishers.
Four horses in the field have accumulated Derby points. Instant Coffee and Mr. Phil’s were graded-stakes winners at Churchill Downs. The rest of the field is made up of three horses with allowance victories and two with only their maiden score.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Lecomte with their Fair Grounds morning-line odds, sires, trainers, jockeys, records and earnings. The Lecomte is scheduled as race 14 of 14 with a post time Saturday at 7:30 p.m. EST.
1. Echo Again (6-1, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione, 3: 1-0-1, $104,375). Echo Again was an eye-catching, maiden winner at Saratoga as a heavy favorite. He is a home-bred son of Gun Runner from Winchell Thoroughbreds, the owner of the 2017 horse of the year. Moving straight to the Derby trail in the Iroquois (G3), Echo Again started slowly, got to the lead but faded badly to seventh. After a short layoff he tried the Springboard Mile, where he got to the lead quickly but again could not compete at the end of the race. The third-place finish did earn him three Derby points. Echo Again can get loose on the lead, but distance is a concern. Toss.
2. Denington (8-1, Gun Runner, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, 6: 1-1-1, $118,695). Here is another son of Gun Runner, but this one needed four tries to break his maiden, and he did it on a sloppy track. He moved onto the Derby trail for his next two starts, which produced a fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) behind Instant Coffee and a third at Oaklawn. He earned four Derby points from those two starts. McPeek will put the blinkers on Denington for the first time. Use underneath.
3. Bromley (5-1, Mastery, Paulo Lobo, Javier Castellano, 2: 2-0-0, $116,400). Bromley brings a perfect record to Fair Grounds. He was a debut winner in a sprint at Churchill in November, when he was overlooked at odds of 23-1. Trainer Paulo Lobo moved him to the artificial surface at Turfway Park, where he beat a field of 11 in an allowance but was no longer a secret as he went to post as the even-money favorite. Bromley will have to stretch out to two turns now. His dam produced a stakes-placed filly who raced long on the turf. Use underneath.
4. Confidence Game (5-1, Candy Ride, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 5: 2-1-1, $183,775). Confidence Game broke his maiden in his second start as the 2-1 favorite when he drew off to win a sprint by five lengths. Desormeaux stretched him out in the Iroquois, and he finished fifth. Two allowance races followed producing a second at Keeneland and then a win at Churchill on the front end going two turns. He brings his one point back on the Derby trail. Use underneath.
5. Tapit’s Conquest (9-2, Tapit, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 2: 1-1-0, $90,000). Tapit’s Conquest was a close second in his debut for Cox at Saratoga at odds of 16-1, which were unusually large for a well-bred 2-year-old from that Cox barn. He came back a month later at Churchill as the favorite and won by more than three lengths going two turns after racing out front. He was crossed-entered in the ninth race at Fair Grounds, which is an allowance that drew a field that is probably much tougher than the Lecomte. Top choice.
6. Itzos (10-1, Bolt d’Oro, Paulo Lobo, Brian Hernandez Jr., 2: 1-0-0. $43,255). Itzos is the second horse in the field for the connections of Larry Best’s OXO Equine and Lobo. Best made many high-priced, auction purchases, and this son of Bolt d’Oro sold at Saratoga for $1.4 million. Itzos broke his maiden in his second start, which came at Turfway Park last month in a sprint. Toss.
7. Instant Coffee (5-2, Bolt d’Oro, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 3: 2-0-0, $322,815). Instant Coffee is the most accomplished horse in the field with his 12 Derby points, which are fifth on the leaderboard, and his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He was a debut winner at Saratoga with odds of 14-1 for the team that campaigned Cyberknife. He then ran well to get fourth behind a very strong field in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in October. Cox kept him on the Derby trail, where he won the Kentucky Jockey Club as the 3-2 favorite. He is one of two graded-stakes winners in the field. The one to beat.
8. Two Phil’s (4-1, Hard Spun, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 5: 3-0-0, $195,450). Two Phil’s has been off since October, when he won the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill by more than five lengths. Early in his career he got his maiden victory at Colonial Downs going six furlongs and then shipped to Canterbury Downs to win the Shakopee Juvenile by almost 10 lengths. Two Phil’s faltered when asked to compete in the Breeders’ Futurity, but he rebounded to get that Grade 3 victory in Louisville. Win contender.
Summary. Trainer Brad Cox has two entered in the Lecomte as he continues to spread his deep 3-year-old barn around the Kentucky Derby trail. Instant Coffee heads the field with a Derby prep victory to his credit already, and Tapit’s Conquest has the look of prospect that has much more to show.
Expect both the Cox horses to make a late move down the long Fair Grounds stretch. Instant Coffee has the graded-stakes success, but Tapit’s Conquest will be the top choice with the likelihood of better odds at post time.