Laurel play of the day: Tesio Stakes fair odds find value

I sure hope the Laurel Park morning line maker is right about how the public will bet the Federico Tesio Stakes on Saturday because my most likely winner is projected to be 8-to-1.

Kentucky Outlaw has done everything right through two career starts at Parx, winning by a combined 13 1/2 lengths while earning an improving figure when stretching out to two turns. Brisnet credits the Outwork colt with setting a fast pace when winning on debut while acknowledging a more moderate tempo in the entry-level allowance race. However, in that gate-to-wire score, Kentucky Outlaw quickened as the race went on.

Owner-trainer Felissa Dunn has big numbers when shipping and with last-out winners, and she retains Silvestre Gonzalez to ride. This is our play of the day.

Sacred Thunder has run similar races in his last four stakes attempts, hitting the board but unable to get to the winner. Perhaps a switch to Paco Lopez and more pace can close the deal.

Studlydoright is the horse projected to take money, the 4-1 third choice on the morning line, who I am against. Bettors might gravitate toward his established class, but the key word for me there is established. We know who this John Robb trainee is, and I'd rather take another horse in here with more upside.

The top two choices on the morning lines, Surfside Moon and Pay Billy, are only as good as others. I prefer both to Studlydoright, but will try to beat both if they are in fact the favorites.

The Tesio is the local prep for the Preakness Stakes on May 17 at Pimlico, and offers its winner an automatic bid to the race. The Maryland Jockey Club will offer a Preakness future wager pool opening Friday and closing on May 3.

Coverage of Laurel at Horse Racing Nation appears courtesy of a marketing co-operative with the Maryland Jockey Club.