Las Vegas is not so certain of its Kentucky Derby favorite
When it comes to identifying the favorite to win Kentucky Derby 2022, the Nevada pendulum has swung from Zandon back to Epicenter. Actually, swung might be too strong a word. Creaked would be more like it.
Measuring each horse’s best price – in other words, the longest odds available – Epicenter reclaimed the favorite’s role he held most of the winter and early spring in Las Vegas. But it is hardly a consensus.
Free past performances for Kentucky Derby from Brisnet.
Circa Sports, which reopened the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Monday at plus 490, shortened him to plus 475 – midway between 9-2 and 5-1. It kept Blue Grass (G1) victor and morning-line favorite Zandon at plus 490. Those are the best odds available in Nevada for each horse.
At the Westgate Superbook, Zandon drifted from 3-1 to 7-2 but remained the favorite over Epicenter, who went from 4-1 to 9-2.
Caesars at William Hill Nevada held firm with Epicenter and Zandon as 7-2 co-favorites.
Oddsmaker Paul Bach of Caesars said liability from the original futures pool that lasted from last October until Sunday would have some influence on the current pool that opened after Monday’s draw.
“I know where my liability is and on which horses I have a good position,” Bach said. “So to some extent I will play one pool against the other, but not too much.”
Normally, Bach said he would not concern himself too much or too soon with a competitive line to counter track odds. But that was before last year, when Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale began to assert his big-money influence.
“For the most part I will ignore the Churchill pari-mutuel pool until maybe midday Saturday,” Bach said. “With Mattress Mack dumping his money into the pool, whoever he decides to play, it skews the odds. It’s wise to just stick to my numbers and money.”
Working with Horse Racing Nation, for which his Runhappy stallion operation is a sponsor, McIngvale will bet as much as $4 million on the Derby favorite as part of a mattress-sale promotion at his Gallery Furniture stores. He said he would monitor various mutuel pools to determine how he will isolate or spread his bets.
Wagering in Nevada went opposite directions early this week on the former Bob Baffert-trained horses who were transferred in March to Tim Yakteen. Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Messier was slashed by the Westgate from 10-1 to 7-1, still the best price available on him. Taiba, who beat Messier in the Santa Anita Derby, drifted at Circa to more than 8-1, still shorter than the 12-1 forecast for him on the morning line.
Pari-mutuel betting on the Derby begins Friday at 9 a.m. EDT, the deadline for any scratches that could bring one of the two also-eligible horses into the field of 20.
Following were the odds Thursday at noon EDT, including the Churchill Downs morning line, Circa, Caesars at William Hill and the Westgate.
| PP | Kentucky Derby futures | CD | Circa | C-WH | WG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Epicenter | +350 | +475 | +350 | +450 |
| 10 | Zandon | +300 | +490 | +350 | +350 |
| 6 | Messier | +800 | +675 | +700 | +700 |
| 1 | Mo Donegal | 10-1 | 10-1 | 12-1 | 12-1 |
| 12 | Taiba | 12-1 | +850 | +800 | +600 |
| 15 | White Abarrio | 10-1 | 12-1 | 12-1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | Charge It | 20-1 | 17-1 | 14-1 | 20-1 |
| 7 | Crown Pride | 20-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 5 | Smile Happy | 20-1 | 14-1 | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| 16 | Cyberknife | 20-1 | 21-1 | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 19 | Zozos | 20-1 | 27-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 30-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| 13 | Simplification | 20-1 | 33-1 | 28-1 | 30-1 |
| 17 | Classic Causeway | 30-1 | 33-1 | 32-1 | 40-1 |
| 14 | Barber Road | 30-1 | 45-1 | 35-1 | 50-1 |
| 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 30-1 | 40-1 | 35-1 | 50-1 |
| 20 | Ethereal Road | 30-1 | 83-1 | 60-1 | 80-1 |
| 2 | Happy Jack | 30-1 | 90-1 | 70-1 | 80-1 |
| 4 | Summer Is Tomorrow | 30-1 | 100-1 | 75-1 | 80-1 |
| 18 | Tawny Port | 30-1 | 100-1 | 60-1 | 80-1 |
| 21 | Rich Strike (ae) | 30-1 | |||
| 22 | Rattle N Roll (ae) | 30-1 | |||
| CD: Churchill Downs morning line | |||||
| Circa: Circa Sports | |||||
| C-WH: Caesars at William Hill | |||||
| WG: Westgate Superbook | |||||
| ae: Also eligible |