Ky. Derby trends: Sovereignty proves some work, some don’t

Using some handicapping trends that have held true through the 21st century, Sovereignty was a good fit to be the winner of Kentucky Derby 2025.

Cashing at 7-1, he cleared historic Final Fractions Theory and Beyer Speed Figure thresholds. Sovereignty also avoided jinx-worthy talismans by not being the favorite on New Year’s Day in Las Vegas or in the February pool of pari-mutuel futures. He also steered clear of the Grade 2 UAE Derby last month and post 17 on Saturday.

Mott celebrates Derby triumph at Kentuckiana bar.

Two numerical paradigms worked against Sovereignty, but one was borderline, and the reliability of the other has been crumbling.

These were the prisms through which Sovereignty’s light passed and came out mostly a bright white on the other side. A couple other statistics carry over to the Preakness.

Final Fractions Theory, pass

By closing to place a hard-charging second to Tappan Street in the Florida Derby (G1), Sovereignty covered the last furlong in 12.4 seconds and the last three in 37.1. Among the 19 Kentucky Derby starters Saturday, his was one of the four best finishes among all the final preps.

The Final Fractions Theory says cashable Derby winners usually finished fast in their last 1 1/8-mile prep races. It is quantified by a final eighth of a mile in 13.0 seconds or less or a final three-eighths in 38.0 or less. Cashable means promoted winner Country House, who met the standard in 2019, and the eventually disqualified Medina Spirit, who did not in 2021.

Sovereignty became the 31st Derby winner in the last 36 years to meet at least one of the theory’s criteria advanced by writer-turned-publicist Jennie Rees. He was the 25th in the last 36 years to meet both.

The theory eliminated 9 of 19 eventual starters in Saturday’s race. Of the 10 who were left, the superfecta of Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza and Final Gambit had top-five times measuring the last furlong of their final preps.

Beyer Speed Figure, pass

Sovereignty came into the Derby with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 95, according to Daily Racing Form. That is the exact minimum for this guideline. A best Beyer at least 95 before the first Saturday in May has applied to 29 of the last 34 Derby winners.

Rounding out Saturday’s trifecta, Journalism with a 108 and Baeza a 101 had the only triple-digit Beyers beforehand. Ten of the 17 U.S.-based starters Saturday met the threshold of 95. Luxor Café and Admire Daytona, both from Japan, had not been in Beyer-measured races.

What made Sovereignty more noteworthy was his form cycle. His 95 actually was earned in the Fountain of Youth (G2), which he won March 1. His second-place outcome in the Florida Derby on March 29 was worth a 92. His triumph Saturday got a 104.

This marked the second year in a row that the Kentucky Derby winner had a form reversal. Mystik Dan went from 101 in winning the Southwest (G3) to 89 finishing third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) to 100 in earning the roses.

Brisnet Speed Rating, fail

Nine of the 17 Derby starters from the U.S. came in with career-best Brisnet Speed Ratings of at least 100. Sovereignty, with a 99 from the Fountain of Youth and then a 94 in the Florida Derby, was not one of them. Razor’s edge, right?

This marked only the sixth time in the last 26 runnings of the Kentucky Derby that the winner did not have a triple-digit Brisnet rating beforehand. Sovereignty got there for the first time with his 103 on Saturday.

Completing the superfecta, Journalism, Baeza and Final Gambit had triple-digit Brisnet ratings before Saturday.

Conversely, Burnham Square in sixth, Sandman seventh, Tiztastic 10th and American Promise 16th met a Final Fractions Theory criterion and both the Beyer and Brisnet minimums but still failed to hit the board.

Pacesetter or stalker, fail

The likelihood of being forward early in the Kentucky Derby used to be a bellwether. If it has not become an urban myth since, it certainly is a statistical one.

Sovereignty became the fourth cashable winner in the last seven years to bring an off-the-pace style into the Derby, according to Quirin Speed Points. He carried an S 0 rating indicative of the deepest of closers.

Quirins that show up in Brisnet past performances never were meant to guarantee victories. They only were designed to map the likely pace. Nevertheless, 16 of 21 cashable winners between 1999 and 2020 had E or E/P ratings indicative of early or early-presser speed. That era clearly has ended.

Winter book & February KDFW tosses, pass

The Kentucky Derby media guide used to have a list of Jan. 1 favorites dating to 1979. If Las Vegas futures books continued to be used as the reference point, that list would say there have been only two so-called winter-book favorites to win the Derby in that time. They were Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Street Sense in 2007.

This year Journalism was the 17-1 favorite on New Year’s Day at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada. Sovereignty was the second choice at 19-1. The winter-book schneid held true again. Barely.

The heavier millstone may be individual favoritism in the February. The Kentucky Derby Future Wager has been a pari-mutuel offering since 1999 with February pools every year except 2006. This year trainer Bob Baffert’s San Vicente (G2) winner Barnes closed that month as the 8-1 individual favorite. He has not won since.

Sovereignty was 17-1 in the KDFW on Feb. 16, the fifth individual choice.

UAE Derby toss & post 17 jinx, pass

UAE Derby graduates are 0-for-21 in the Kentucky Derby. A year after Forever Young came two noses from ending that shutout, the $1 million race in Dubai regressed to an ignominious mean.

Admire Daytona’s 19th-place result marked the second time since 2022 and the sixth time since 2012 that a UAE Derby horse came in last or did not finish the Kentucky Derby at all.

A bigger 0-fer is post 17, which has had 46 Derby starters and 46 Derby losers. Chunk of Gold, a 29-1 long shot, became the latest when he finished ninth. If not for the veterinarian scratch of Grande on Friday, Sovereignty would have started from the cursed stall.

Triple Crown carryovers

Paying $17.96 on Saturday for a $2 win bet, Sovereignty became the sixth consecutive winner of a Triple Crown race to carry odds of at least 5-1. That is the longest such streak in the combined history of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

In the seven years since Justify completed his Triple Crown, another drought has persisted. There have been 20 different horses who have won the last 20 classics. That ties a period from 1923 to 1930 for the longest such streak since Sir Barton pulled off the first sweep of the three races in 1919.

If Sovereignty does not win or even show up for the Preakness, the no-repeat streak will set a modern-day record, and the run of betting value in the Triple Crown series may continue.