Kentucky Derby scenarios: Who has clinched, who has not?

Sixteen horses have clinched berths in Kentucky Derby 2023. The question now is whether all of them will show up.

Practical Move and Tapit Trice, already assured before Saturday of places in the 20-horse starting gate, maintained their momentum with major-prep victories headed to Churchill Downs. Practical Move won the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Tapit Trice finished first in the Blue Grass (G1).

Lord Miles (59-1) was the party crasher Saturday, going from zero points to 100 and into sixth place in the qualifying standings with his 59-1 shocker in the Wood Memorial (G2).

Since Continuar got an invitation via the Japan road to the Derby, only the top 19 would be assured of being among those invited via the main path to Louisville. The mathematical cut line dropped to 47 points Saturday with Wild on Ice and Mage just above it at 50.

Blazing Sevens, who finished third in the Blue Grass, is just below it at 46. One way he could be bumped would be if three horses just behind him were to compete in next Saturday’s Lexington (G3), a 20-8-6-4-2 race, and earn enough points to pass him.

If, however, the Lexington were not to produce a horse who cracked the top 19, Blazing Sevens would be in, Reincarnate and Jace’s Road would be just above the bubble, and Skinner would be on the outside looking in because of the tiebreaker based on earnings from non-restricted stakes.

In reality, attrition may eliminate any worries about the math and tiebreakers. For now these are the updated clinch scenarios with the standings confirmed Saturday evening by Churchill Downs.