Derby prep trends: Frontrunners, long shots influence Rebel

Frontrunners and stalkers have dominated the Rebel Stakes. For nine runnings in a row, winners of the mid-winter, Grade 2 race at Oaklawn never were more than two lengths behind at any call during the 1 1/16-mile race.

Then came Un Ojo.

It was not like the gelding with one eye came from the clouds, but he was 3 1/2 lengths behind through the first quarter-mile before closing to win last year at historically long odds of 75-1. In the recent history of the Rebel, that was downright exceptional.

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Calling Un Ojo a fluke is especially convenient since he has not finished better than fourth in three races since. Should handicappers draw the proverbial line through that, disregard last February and expect this edition of the 50-20-15-10-5 points prep for Kentucky Derby 2023 to return to normal when it is run again Saturday?

These were the past-performance lines on the Rebel winners since 2000, according to Equibase:

Reincarnate and Verifying, who are likely to attract a lot of the betting in the 11-horse renewal this weekend, would be reason enough to think the Rebel will regress to its more familiar, pace-favoring mean.

Reincarnate, who was transferred this week from trainer Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen, led at all but one call in his two victories, including last month’s Sham (G3) at Santa Anita. Verifying, from the Brad Cox stable, stalked the early pace on the way to an allowance win last month at Oaklawn that earned him a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.

More servings of recent history offer a tantalizingly different story. Consider how many long shots – make that long, long shots – have hit the board in the Rebel. Five of the last seven runnings, including one of the two divisions in the oversubscribed year 2019, had a horse with win odds of at least 18-1 in the top three. Thirteen of the last 21 had an in-the-money horse that went off at 15-1 or longer, as noted in this compilation from race charts posted at Equibase:

The noteworthy value horses went beyond Un Ojo. They included 82-1 Excession, second in 2020; 48-1 Market King, third in 2019’s second division; 112-1 Sonneteer, second in 2017; and the victorious pair Will Take Charge at 28-1 in 2013 and Win Willy at 56-1 in 2009.

American Pharoah in 2015 and Nadal in 2020, both trained by Baffert, were the only favorites to have won the Rebel since the Kentucky Derby launched its qualifying-points system 10 years ago.

Pharoah also proved to be exceptional by winning the Rebel and the Derby, as shown in this list of horses who ran in both races since 2000:

The designations from the Quirin Speed Points showed something in common between the only three horses who came out of the Rebel and won the Derby. American Pharoah, Smarty Jones in 2004 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983 took a stalking style to Churchill Downs. Forward placing early in their runs for the roses won them the big prize.

The media guide compiled by Churchill Downs said the Rebel sent 59 horses to the Derby since 1980. When Barber Road finished third last year, he was only the ninth in that span to have hit the board in Louisville.

One constant that will not resonate with this year’s Rebel is Baffert. His eight victories in the race are a record for trainers, but he will be on the outside looking in Saturday. He lost a court fight this month in a bid to reverse a Churchill Downs ban over the late Medina Spirit’s failed, post-Derby drug test in 2021. The move to Yakteen allowed Reincarnate to be eligible for the qualifying points that come with the Rebel.

Should horseplayers lean on the likes of Reincarnate or Verifying to maintain the success rates for frontrunners? Or do they look for the next coming of Un Ojo? The lens of history certainly leaves Rebel bettors in a quandary.