Ky. Derby prep: McPeek tries for upset with 3 in Blue Grass

Lexington, Ky.

When he took the long view of opening week at Keeneland, trainer Kenny McPeek was simultaneously confident and cautious. One might even say he was ambitious sending three of his colts into Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes. He would hope to get one or more of them into Kentucky Derby 2023.

Consider what McPeek said in the same conversation this week looking ahead to what would be Defining Purpose’s 20-1 upset Friday in the Ashland (G1).

“This filly is training super, and I suspect she’ll run really well,” he said. “Punchbowl is getting a lot of respect, but she has not run in stakes company yet. We’ll test her. … I think third or better in the Ashland.”

She was better, all right. Now she has her ticket punched for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

“I’m not overly surprised,” McPeek said afterward. “She fell off a little bit of form in her last two.”

Now McPeek will try to pull off another upset Saturday. If Sun Thunder, Hayes Strike or Mendelssohns March were to surprise morning-line favorite Tapit Trice, McPeek would have another Ashland-Blue Grass double. He did it in 2002 with Take Charge Lady and Harlan’s Holiday, so this would be his second.

Again, though, McPeek tried to ward off any symptoms of Derby fever. He does not regard the Blue Grass or any other graded stakes as just a prep.

“I don’t know that that that’s the focus on any of the three horses that I have in this weekend,” he said on Horse Racing Nation’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod. “These are good races, and regardless of points, the timing is right for all the three horses that I have running.”

Sun Thunder, who is 10-1 on the morning line Saturday, is as short as 45-1 in Las Vegas futures to win the Derby and as long as 100-1 after closing at 113-1 in the pari-mutuel wager conducted last week by Churchill Downs. The $400,000 Into Mischief colt is racing back only two weeks after he finished fifth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). That race never set up for this closer.

“Didn’t have any pace at all. That was unfortunate,” McPeek said. “We felt like we need something to run at with him.”

Still just a maiden winner, Sun Thunder would assure himself a place in the Kentucky Derby with a top three finish Saturday. McPeek said that was not the main reason for entering the Blue Grass.

“The motivation here is that one of the partners owns the mare,” McPeek said, referring to Greenfield d’Oro. “Obviously you’re looking at Grade 1 status. Even if he’s placed, that affects not only Sun Thunder but also the mare. I take that into consideration.”

As for the two-week turnaround, McPeek said the colt primarily owned by Ramón Tallaj and Kevin Moody did not exactly burn a lot from his tank at Fair Grounds.

“I think he only really ran the last three-eighths of a mile in his last run,” he said. “I’ve always believed if a horse is healthy and sound, ready and doing well, then I’ve never been hesitant to run one. I don’t think it’s a big deal. I know people worry about bounce and running them back too quick, but they’re not running on Lasix. I think Lasix prohibited trainers to run back as quickly as we wanted because of the dehydration factor. I’m thrilled that we don’t run on it today.”

Hayes Strike, whose program odds are 15-1, comes back three weeks after the Private Terms, a black-type stakes at Laurel Park where he got his second victory. The Connect colt bred and owned by Bill Shively’s Dixiana Farms has raced nine times on six tracks, and McPeek thinks going from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles Saturday will be a big help.

“He’s another one that’s been begging for a little more ground,” McPeek said. “I think he grinds it out. He needs to show that he’s faster. Dixiana Farms and Bill Shively and his team are not scared of ambitious spots. He owns the mare (Plaid) in this case. A third or better gives the mare even more value.”

McPeek was realistic about the Private Terms, which was mostly a confidence builder after a visit to the Tapeta at Turfway Park did not work out.

“We were able to get him back into a dirt prep,” he said. “I’m not sure how tough that race was at Laurel, but he did everything right. ... Another one that might need a little pace in front of him. If he doesn’t win, hopefully he’ll run well.”

Mendelssohns March, who drew widest among the Blue Grass 11 and was given odds of 20-1, inspired the most optimistic talk from McPeek. He is 2-for-2 after an allowance win last month on the dirt at Oaklawn. He broke his maiden when stewards promoted him after he crossed second in a turf mile at Fair Grounds.

“This horse’s future may very well be turf,” McPeek said. “If you go look at him physically, he’s a very imposing horse.”

By Mendelssohn out of the Galileo mare Unappeased, there is a lot of influence from the Ireland breeding giant Coolmore. McPeek said a June trip across the Atlantic could be in the cards for the colt owned by Harold Lerner, Dale Cohen, Wayne Cutler and Jeff Massero.

“I’ve also nominated him to the English Derby,” he said, referring to the Group 1 classic June 3 at Epsom. “Let’s say he ran third or fourth in the Blue Grass. Whether he went to the Kentucky Derby would be kind of up in the air. We’ll nominate him to the American Turf (G2 on May 7 at Churchill Downs), and if he runs well in that, I’ll probably take him to England to try the English Derby if the partnership is up for it. None of that is set in stone. We just did the nomination a few days ago.”

First thing’s first, though. That is to get through a race in which Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Tapit Trice is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and allowance victor Verifying is 3-1.

“Certainly, it’s all gray. None of it is black and white,” McPeek said. “Each horse has obviously individual reasons why we would choose a particular spot. ... This is kind of how the ball bounced on all three horses. I think it’s reasonable.”