Kinkelaar: Betting the rail bias Tuesday at Parx Racing

Having reviewed replays of recent cards, it appears that the rail at Parx Racing is dead. Assuming no changes heading into Tuesday's card, which begins with a 12:55 p.m. ET first post, I believe the best trip a horse can get would come in the three or four path, just off the pace. Given that, there should be some value opportunities.

Race 1 Claiming, one mile Likely favorite #3 Linda Listen (7-5) drops for high-percentage trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero, but three defeats and the stretch out to a mile create more questions than answers. #1 Osheen (7-2) could be up against the rail and a hot pace. #5 Our Juliet (8-1) and #6 Blue Eyed Crystal (3-1) are also likely to gun for the lead, and a meltdown appears the most likely scenario. #4 DEREYA (12-1) who goes out for owner-trainer Uriah St. Lewis of Discreet Lover fame. Her tactical speed has resulted in two second-place finishes in a row, and she looks primed to break through for that second win. Kevin Carmona did choose Linda Listen over this filly, but with my concerns about the rail and pace, Dereya seems worth a shot. I recommend win bet on #4 at odds of 8-1 or better paired with an exacta key box of 4/1,2,5,7. Race 3 Maiden Special Weight, six furlongs #1A WINNING KNOCKOUT (1-1) ran protected in a maiden claimer in her last outing due to a state-bred rule. Kate DeMasi always spots her horses where they can win, so the return to maiden special weight company is not in vein. Add in the services of Mychel Sanchez, who wins with DeMasi at a 30% clip, and this filly could live up to her name. #6. J.J. Loves Billy (5-1) has the potential to force a fast pace, but a collapse up front is not guaranteed. In the event that the track is wet, I will look to #5 Symphony of Love (15-1), who should offer a large price. Trainer Dee Curry is excellent off of layoffs of 60-180 days, winning five of her last 10 attempts with a $13.66 ROI, and her filly looks most primed to strike in the slop. I will play a 1/2,5,6,7 exacta and 2/1,5,6,7 exacta, weighing the first twice. I will also single the 1 in the first leg of the daily double. If the track is wet, I will revert to the 5 with a win bet. Race 4 Claiming, six furlongs Looking for value in the second leg of the double, I will certainly use likely favorite and class-dropper #2 NINETYEIGHTOCTANE (2-1) and second time class-dropper #7 No Hiding Place (9-2), but with concerns about a track bias and a decent pace in this race, I will also use stalking type #5 Chelios (5-1). Another horse who has shown some tactical ability is #8 Surfing USA (8-1), who drops significantly for low-profile connections. The Carl Jones barn has shown significant improvement in recent weeks, having two $50-plus winners since late May, and I believe this experienced gelding has the potential to outrun his face value. In addition to using him in the doubles, I like him in vertical exotics, both on top and underneath. Good luck!