Pegasus odds and analysis: Kingsbarns leads Haskell prep
The $150,000 Pegasus Stakes, which serves as the local prep race for the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes on July 22, drew a field of eight 3-year-olds for the 1 1/16-mile race Saturday at Monmouth Park.
The Pegasus is part of Haskell preview day, which includes three graded stakes. In addition to the Pegasus, the Eatontown Stakes (G3) for older fillies and mares serves at the prep for the Matchmaker (G3), the Salvator Mile (G3) is linked to the Monmouth Cup (G3) for the handicap division, and the Monmouth Stakes (G3) serves the older male turf division in the United Nations (G1).
The Haskell preview stakes start with the Pegasus and are carded for races 10 through 13 with top jockeys suchas Luis Saez, Florent Geroux, Joel Rosario, and Paco Lopez. The four stakes also start the final pick 5 for the day.
Several stars from the Kentucky Derby trail, Arabian Knight, Tapit Trice, Forte, Geaux Rocket Ride and Two Phil’s, already have already identified the Haskell as a possible next start.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Pegasus Stakes with the official track morning-line odds. The Pegasus is scheduled as race 10 of 14 with post time set for 4:44 p.m. EDT.
1. Classic Catch, 3-1 – Classic Empire – Todd Plecther / Paco Lopez – 6: 2-0-2 - $146,410. Classic Catch is the first of two runners from the Todd Pletcher barn. He broke his maiden at Aqueduct in November going nine furlongs and then headed to Florida, where he won an allowance at Gulfstream Park going that same distance. He moved to the Kentucky Derby trail to run fifth in the Wood Memorial (G2) and then was fourth in the Peter Pan (G3) behind Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo. He is certainly second best to his stablemate in this race. Use underneath.
2. Moreau, 8-1 – Speightstown – Andrew McKeever / Florent Geroux – 2: 1-0-0 - $73,562. Moreau ships up from Kentucky after breaking his maiden in a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs a month ago. That was his second career start, and he rallied from sixth in a large field. He gets a big-name rider but has a lot to prove in this move to a stakes race. Toss.
3. No Confession, 30-1 – Into Mischief – John McAllen / Pedro Cotto Jr. – 11: 3-2-1 - $137,550. With 11 starts, No Confession has lots of experience, mostly at Parx Racing and Monmouth where he is stabled for the summer. He won three races in a row during the winter at Parx, advancing from a maiden special weight to an allowance and then an overnight stakes race. All three victories were sprints where he pressed the pace. Last month he tried two turns in the Long Branch at Monmouth when he set the pace briefly and then faded to last. Toss.
4. Salute the Stars, 9-2 – Candy Ride – Brad Cox / Joel Rosario – 3: 2-1-0 - $120,960. Salute the Stars broke his maiden in August for trainer John Ortiz at Ellis Park in his second start on the turf. He moved to the barn of Brad Cox and debuted last month at Churchill in an allowance race that was meant for the grass but was run on a fast main track going nine furlongs. That day he pressed the pace and prevailed by a neck. Joel Rosario will get on board for the first time even though Geroux rode him last start. The win on the dirt must have prompted Cox to take a chance in here. Use underneath.
5. Alternate Reality, 12-1 – Alternation – Chris Englehart / Jackie Davis – 5: 2-1-0 - $114,850. Alternate Reality won his last two starts in New York in a maiden special weight at Aqueduct in April in his fourth career and then an allowance at Belmont three weeks ago. He came from behind in both of those victories as he stretched out from seven furlongs to a mile. Toss.
6. Subrogate, 5-1 – Arrogate – Jorge Duarte Jr. / Jevian Toledo - 2: 1-1-0 - $65,500. Subrogate will make the third start of his career after breaking his maiden at Belmont last month in a field of six when he cut back in distance from a mile to 6 1/2 furlongs. That win was on the lead and earned a speed figure that is competitive with most of this field. He is projected to be the pacesetter in this field with a chance to get loose on the lead. Use underneath.
7. Howgreatisnate, 6-1 – Speightster – Elizabeth Dobles / Jairo Rendon – 7: 5-0-0 - $228,900. Howgreatisnate won all four of his starts as a 2-year-old when he was trained by Andrew Simoff at Delaware Park and Parx. In his first start of this year he tried the Derby trail in the Gotham (G3) but stumbled and lost his rider. He then was fourth in the Private Terms at Laurel Park. Subsequently, he was moved to the barn of Elizabeth Dobles and responded with a pace-pressing victory in the Long Branch at Monmouth, earning the best speed figure of his career. Win contender.
8. Kingsbarns, 8-5 – Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 4: 3-0- - $657,300. Kingsbarns won the first three races of his career at three tracks for Todd Pletcher, including the Louisiana Derby (G2) with a front-end effort that got him into the run for the roses. His speed figure at the Fair Grounds tops this field. The $800,000 2-year-old purchase was second in the early going on the first Saturday in May but then dropped back to end up 14th. He has two workouts at Belmont since then. Luis Saez, who rode Kingsbarns in his debut, comes up from Kentucky to ride him. Top choice.
Summary: The pace projector for the Pegasus shows that Subrogate has a chance to get loose on the lead in what will be his first start around two turns after breaking his maiden last time sprinting at Belmont.
But class seems to be the most significant handicapping factor with only two stakes winners in this field. As would be expected, Kingsbarns and Howgreatisnate have the two best speed figures in the field. Kingsbarns got the top figure in his Louisiana Derby victory and Howgreatisnate earned his figure in his lone start at Monmouth in the Long Branch.
Kingsbarns beat several stakes winners at Fair Grounds, and horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby frequently come back to win stakes races such as the Pegasus. The Pletcher runner has a significant class advantage in this field and is the top choice to win this prep for the Haskell Stakes.