Fair odds: 17-horse field exposes King’s Plate favorite

Anytime you are against a morning-line favorite is an opportunity. When you’re against a morning-line favorite in a 17-horse field? That's a real opportunity.

So it goes Sunday at Woodbine, where the King’s Plate attracted a field of 19 with 17 expected to start in the 1 1/4-mile Canada classic.

Of course, that is not to say no. 6 Kalik can’t win. He is among the more likely winners, but as the shortest price (3-1) against a group with proven synthetic form, I’m willing to take a shot against him on top.

I say on top, because there is a mandatory payout in the super high 5. As Emily Gullikson notes in the video below, Kalik’s speed and class make him tough to toss completely.

Error in counting earnings changes to King’s Plate field.

That’s OK. With the mandatory payout of the super high 5 carryover, beating Kalik on top could be enough to key a big score. My preferred choice to do so is no. 2 Elysian Field, the filly who I have at 9-2 on my fair odds.

Trainer Mark Casse has this race covered on both sides of the pace with frontrunner Paramount Prince and Elysian Field. I think the filly has a better shot from her spot, but I can’t completely dismiss Paramount Prince’s chances to steal this one.

I'll throw in no. 11 Touch’n Ride off that fast figure last out despite the inexperience, and I think no. 15 Kaukokaipuu might be overlooked as well.

A five-horse, super high 5 box seems silly as that’s still $24 even at the 20-cent denomination. Even though it’s a box, you still pretty much have to be dead right. Instead, I’ll play no. 2 Elysian Field in all five spots and Kalik second through fifth.

The only other potential winners are nos. 11, 13 and 15. From there I’ll play the board around nos. 1, 8 and 17, and I’m upgrading no. 14 as well because Emily made a great case in the video for that one crashing the party.