King’s Plate fair odds: Other, other Casse offers most value

At first blush it might look like Mark Casse is a mortal lock to win his fourth King’s Plate when the postponed race is run Friday at Woodbine. After further examination, he is just a venial lock.

All jokes aside, Casse’s three of a kind for this year’s US$740,525 King’s Plate is a strong hand, and if we still had coupled entries in stakes races, fair odds on this trio to win the Canadian classic would be 3-5.

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I’m generally a proponent of coupled entries, but I do not mind their absence here because a Casse entry likely would be bet down to 2-5 here, sucking all the value from the most likely winners of the race.

That’s right, of Casse’s three entrants, two are the horses who are most likely to win the race. They are most likely winner My Boy Prince and second choice Essex Serpent. Unfortunately, neither is likely to offer value. My Boy Prince certainly will be favored, and Essex Serpent won’t be far behind.

With those two taking so much money, something has to give. Call it Casse fatigue, but I think it creates opportunity here. My fair odds for Midnight Mascot are 10-1, and I think we’ll get that because of the 13-horse field.

Midnight Mascot finished third in the Marine Stakes last out. Essex Serpent won that race, and runner-up Cameo Performance won a stakes next out at Ellis Park. 

Essex Serpent showed a new dimension that day, going to the front and scoring a gate-to-wire victory despite a fast pace. Midnight Mascot was farther back than usual, which gives some pause. We’re getting a nice price that maybe Essex Serpent won’t want to go this far, especially against additional speed, and that Midnight Mascot will be closing resolutely.

Casse thought enough of My Boy Prince last year to try the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and the Cairo Prince colt responded with a nice third-place finish. Since returning to Woodbine this sprint, he is 3-for-3 by a combined 12 1/2 lengths at odds-on all three times. He’s certain to take too much money here but is the horse to beat.

Rafaroo is another closer who intrigues me. He is 8-1 on the line, and I think he goes off way longer than that and will be worth a look, especially underneath.

Caitlinhergrtness was runner-up in the Woodbine Oaks last out and owners Winstar and Siena Farms supplemented her to this race. I think she’ll be bet more than the morning line indicates but if not is worth a look.

Vitality took a step forward when finally breaking his maiden in his seventh career start. There will be worse 20-1s in this race.

Wagering strategy is tricky because with a 13-horse field there’s certain to be one crazy underlay outside the favorite. But I have no idea who that makes the overlay in the field. Of course, I’m most interested in Midnight Mascot. He will be a heavy use in all sots of all wagers.

Vertically, I’ll also take the two longest prices between 2, 4 and 13 and key that pair with the Casse trio. I’ll also do an exacta box of 2, 4, 5, 13.

Coverage of the King’s Plate at Horse Racing Nation is made possible in part through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment.