King's Plate week: Who are the Woodbine jockeys to key on?
With the King's Plate and a huge day of racing on tap this Saturday, it's worth knowing the top riders at Woodbine and their specialties.
Pietro Moran is leading the way at the track with 66 wins, but Rafael Hernandez and Sahin Civaci are close behind. The top trio has won a combined 179 races, each with a win percentage nearing or above 20%.
Nearly all of the top 10 riders are sporting strong winning percentages, with only Jose Campos and Fraser Aebly below 15%. Jose Campos checks in at 9.3%, but his Horse Racing Nation impact percentage is positive meaning he's likely riding many prices, and Aebly's impact is positive as well.
Click here for Woodbine entries and results.
Popping out on this list is appprentice rider Xarel Forde, who is not only winning at 16% but returning an outstanding 58.9% HRN impact score, meaning he is significantly outperforming the odds of his mounts. As an apprentice rider, it's worth noting he's built most of his success outside of stakes, while the top riders have dominated the bigger races to date.
We'll get into the specifics of who's riding well on the main and turf later, but first let's look at the overall standings.
| Jockey | Starts | Wins | Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Moran | 368 | 66 | 17.9% | -7.0% |
| Rafael Hernandez | 277 | 57 | 20.6% | -1.2% |
| Sahin Civaci | 263 | 56 | 21.3% | -8.0% |
| Ryan Munger | 222 | 36 | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| Fraser Aebly | 242 | 33 | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| Sofia Vives | 200 | 31 | 15.5% | -0.7% |
| Eswan Flores | 171 | 25 | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| Jose Campos | 226 | 21 | 9.3% | 1.9% |
| Patrick Husbands | 92 | 21 | 22.8% | 5.1% |
| *Xarel Forde | 119 | 19 | 16.0% | 58.9% |
* = apprentice
Main track standings reflect overall leadership
Pietro Moran maintains his leadership on the synthetic main track with 52 wins and a 19.7% win rate but Sahin Civaci and Rafael Hernandez are close behind, and Civaci's 22.5% win percentage leads all riders in the top five.
Several jockeys with fewer starts have posted strong synthetic results. Standout performances include Patrick Husbands topping the colony winning 28.6% of his 56 mounts and Xarel Forde showing impressive value with a 53.1% positive HRN impact from 75 starts.
One interesting note is the top 20 main track are bookended by father David Moran in 20th and son Pietro Moran at the top.
| Jockey | Synth Starts |
Synth Wins |
Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Moran | 264 | 52 | 19.7% | -1.5% |
| Sahin Civaci | 169 | 38 | 22.5% | -5.4% |
| Rafael Hernandez | 190 | 35 | 18.4% | -14.5% |
| Ryan Munger | 146 | 28 | 19.2% | 30.1% |
| Sofia Vives | 140 | 24 | 17.1% | 4.8% |
| Fraser Aebly | 165 | 20 | 12.1% | -11.1% |
| Eswan Flores | 129 | 20 | 15.5% | 25.9% |
| Patrick Husbands | 56 | 16 | 28.6% | 20.9% |
| Leo Salles | 134 | 15 | 11.2% | -10.1% |
| Jose Campos | 149 | 13 | 8.7% | -6.2% |
| *Xarel Forde | 75 | 13 | 17.3% | 53.1% |
| Keveh Nicholls | 108 | 12 | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Daisuke Fukumoto | 66 | 12 | 18.2% | 37.1% |
| Juan Crawford | 65 | 8 | 12.3% | 15.8% |
| Skye Chernetz | 65 | 8 | 12.3% | 30.8% |
| Austin Adams | 112 | 7 | 6.3% | -41.1% |
| Jalon Samuel | 53 | 6 | 11.3% | 14.5% |
| Rico Walcott | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 52.9% |
| David Moran | 88 | 4 | 4.5% | -56.4% |
Hernandez, Aebly great bets on turf
Rafael Hernandez leads the turf standings with 22 wins from 87 starts for a 25.3% win rate. His turf performance has been particularly strong with a 31.4% positive HRN impact, demonstrating consistent value for bettors. Sahin Civaci and Pietro Moran are close behind, but their negative impact scores mean they could have won more than they did.
On impact, Fraser Aebly pops off the chart with a 69.1% positive HRN impact from 77 turf starts. His 16.9% win clip is third best among the main riders and with an impact score like that he's obviously riding extremely well on the lawn. Xarel Forde has a similar impact number at 73% from 44 mounts.
Several riders have posted solid turf numbers with limited opportunities, below is the full list.
| Jockey | Turf Starts |
Turf Wins |
Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Hernandez | 87 | 22 | 25.3% | 31.4% |
| Sahin Civaci | 94 | 18 | 19.1% | -13.1% |
| Pietro Moran | 104 | 14 | 13.5% | -23.0% |
| Fraser Aebly | 77 | 13 | 16.9% | 69.1% |
| Ryan Munger | 76 | 8 | 10.5% | -14.4% |
| Jose Luis Campos | 77 | 8 | 10.4% | 18.5% |
| Sofia Vives | 60 | 7 | 11.7% | -16.0% |
| *Xarel Forde | 44 | 6 | 13.6% | 73.0% |
| Patrick Husbands | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | -25.8% |
| Eswan Flores | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | -7.9% |
| Keveh Nicholls | 48 | 5 | 10.4% | 7.1% |
| Daisuke Fukumoto | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 76.9% |
| Jalon Samuel | 24 | 4 | 16.7% | 104.3% |
| Emma-Jayne Wilson | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 38.9% |
| Rico Walcott | 22 | 2 | 9.1% | 25.2% |
| Austin Adams | 32 | 2 | 6.3% | -19.7% |
| Leo Salles | 52 | 2 | 3.8% | -64.2% |
| David Moran | 46 | 2 | 4.3% | -48.0% |
| Slade Callaghan | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 337.0% |