King's Plate fair odds: Star sophomores lead classic path

When considering which races make up the road to the King's Plate, the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks would have been unlikely to make the cut. But Luv Your Neighbor's victory on June 13 at Delaware Park puts her squarely among 3-year-olds to beat in Canada's most prestigious race.

Bred in Ontario by Anderson Farms, Luv Your Neighbor sold to Roy and Gretchen Jackson's Lael Stable for $350,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September yearling sale. The Jacksons sent the Constitution filly to trainer Michael Stidham, and the pair are no strangers to success at Woodbine. Lael won the E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) last year on the Plate undercard with She Feels Pretty, and Stidham trained Tom's Magic to a second-place finish in the Plate before winning the Breeders' Stakes.

Of course the Luv Your Neighbor team will have to decide between Grade 1 glory in the U.S. or classic aspirations in Canada, but Luv Your Neighbor should not have an issue with the 1 1/4 miles of the Plate, and her second dam was a three-time winner on Woodbine's synthetic Tapeta surface. Her lone synthetic try was at Woodbine second out in the Glorious Song after she won her debut in the slop at Colonial Downs. She pressed the pace and faded that day, which admittedly is not super encouraging for the Plate. But if Stidham decides to target the Toronto area again, then she is the most likely winner.

Casson looked impressive last year at 2 when winning his first two career starts. He ran OK in four straight defeats but looked back on the right track last out when returning to Woodbine. Since that win in the King Corrie, the Mark Casse trainee fired a best-of-80 workout. If there are Plate aspirations here, one would assume a stretchout is next.

As for the rest, it's a pretty big drop between the top two and my next 18 contenders. But 3-year-olds preparing for a 1 1/4-mile race have a way of improving, so I would expect this to tighten over the next few weeks.